What If This Doesn’t End?

~ Laura

From the newsletter

From time to time, we try to buck up Jonah’s spirits, so he can muscle through yet another semester of professors droning through Power Point slides on YouTube. 

“Don’t worry,” we say, “This fall will back to normal after everyone gets the vaccine, and won’t that be great?!” We promised him a semester abroad in Spring 2022, and a normal job market later that June. 

Maybe we’ve been too hasty. 

This week, Antonio Calcado, Rutger’s executive vice president, said he hopes that students can have some in-person classes, if the university offers staggered schedules over the summer and fall. But that it will be a long, long time before the college resumes normally. 

“I don’t think reasonably that this will happen before September of ‘22,” he said. “And I truly believe we will probably be looking at ‘23.”

This isn’t the first hint that I’ve heard that we should think about a pandemic world beyond August. Pundits on CNN have been throwing out little asides all week that we need to think long term; the vaccine isn’t going to magically make everything disappear. 

For some people, a permanent pandemic isn’t a big deal. They transitioned from the office building without a hitch to the home office. They learned how to manage their mental health needs with outdoor dining, backyard parties, and long hikes. Steve and I certainly fit in that category. But others are not doing so well. 

In the past week, four of my friends lost parents, not to COVID but to a variety of ailments that were certainly born out of prolonged isolation, stress, and neglect. Other friends shared tips on trying to get their parents a vaccine in a system that is tone deaf to poor tech skills of those over 60. After days of work, I lucked out and got my parents on vaccination appointments for mid February. Now, I’m helping their friends who have flaky children. 

Ian, my younger son with autism (picture above), has spent most of the year in his bedroom alone, doing worksheets or remote education. He’s had little contact with other human beings, which is kind of a disaster for a person who cannot develop social skills independently, has no friends, and no life outside of school. I think he’s been permanently damaged. 

Ian isn’t alone. In fact, some kids with disabilities have had it much, much worse. 

One 14-year old kid with autism in Boston’s Fall River school starved to death in his father’s care in October. His teachers didn’t notice that the boy was suffering, because students did not have to turn their video cameras on during class. 

There are never ending horrors around remote education in low-income communities, where families don’t have a full-time parent to supplement school or access to tutors or proper technology and Internet access. New York City doesn’t even know where tens of thousands of students are now; they never logged in this winter. Every month that schools are closed is a disaster for vulnerable kids. 

It’s also a disaster for the less vulnerable kids. Middle school and high school students in the upper middle class suburbs around here have stopped showing up to school. They are logging on from their bedrooms. Of the 28 students in Ian’s history class, he is often the only person who shows up to school, when it is open for business. Administrators tell me that students aren’t staying home because they’re worried about their health. Kids aren’t showing up, because they’ve given up. There’s a strong feeling that none of this matters. Education nihilism makes me very sad.

If the pandemic continues, because the virus outsmarts the vaccines, then that’s sad, but unavoidable. 

If the pandemic continues, but government and communities fail to create systems to support the most vulnerable, then that’s criminal. 

We’ve had nearly a year to try to create better social supports, better schools, better connections, and it just hasn’t happened yet, in part because everyone thought that this was going to end. Maybe it’s time to change our mindset.

Published by Laura

46 thoughts on “What If This Doesn’t End?”

  1. Great post, but one minor correction: the student who died was not from Boston’s Fall River school, but from the city of Fall River itself. It’s the town next door to us. It struggles with many of the same problems Boston’s and its schools have: lots of low income students, disengagement, etc. At the same time, it doesn’t have some of the resources that Boston has: pockets of great wealth, large corporations, universities, etc. As such, it’s probably worse there than in Boston.

    Like

    2. I’m having whiplash because my first thought was “Fall River!? How did I not know about this?” then i saw “Fall River School in Boston” and I said “Oh, that’s why I didn’t know.” And now I’m back to “Fall River!? How did I not know about this?”

      Seriously, how did I not know? I’ve been reading the ProJo daily (I especially enjoy reading the letters to the editor and all the criticisms of Victor Davis Hansen’s weekly columns). Is there a paper more local to the FR/NB area that I’m missing? Was it on local news, which I admittedly do not watch any more. I am also following Mass SPED FB groups and Twitter accounts. Sorry – I am feeling betrayed by my media diet.

      Like

      1. The local paper for Fall River is the Fall River Herald. In New Bedford, it’s the Standard Times. They share operations now, so much of the coverage is the same. I follow the local news down here and had not seen that story either.

        Like

      2. I wasn’t able to get past the paywall, but read this October story:

        https://www.masslive.com/news/2020/10/death-of-14-year-old-boy-family-living-in-filth-in-fall-river-will-now-be-investigated-by-independent-organization-mayor-says.html#

        There was also a brother in the home who had to be hospitalized.

        “The boys weighed approximately 80 pounds at 5 feet 10 inches tall, investigators said, according to the newspaper. David, the Herald News reported, was wearing a brown, soiled adult diaper, feces covered his body and he had injuries on his hands and feet.”

        “The siblings were living at Devereaux Advanced Behavioral Health in Rutland until earlier this year. A third sibling, also autistic, is currently there, the newspaper reported. The two brothers returned to live with their father in March and were remote learning at the request of the parent.
        The district attorney claimed investigators found evidence of daily narcotics use by the adults in the home.”

        “Police arrested 33-year-old John Michael Almond and his girlfriend, 26-year-old Jaclyn Marie Coleman last week, authorities said.”

        “The father was arraigned on Thursday in Fall River District Court, along with Coleman on two counts of abuse of a handicapped person and one count of heroin possession, according to the newspaper.”

        I kind of wonder what kind of criminal record the dad had accrued before those two teenage autistic boys were handed over to his care in the middle of a pandemic. I also wonder how much Zoom school the boys actually “attended” while starving in filth.

        Like

  2. I read with concern that China has started locking down again: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-01-china-million-salesman-virus.html It was a year ago that strange reports started circulating about a new virus in China. The flu has a yearly cycle; it would not surprise me at all to find out that this virus does too.

    Boris Johnson, and the UK’s chief scientist, have stated that the UK variant is more infectious and 30% more deadly. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/uk-chief-scientist-virus-variant-deadly-75429865

    I am very concerned that the Brits are setting a lower age range–60 and up–for those most in danger from the disease.

    The South African version may have a mutation that makes the vaccines less effective: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/12/health/coronavirus-mutation-south-africa-variant/index.html

    If decision makers in large institutions like Rutgers are now talking about ’22 or ’23, I would take that seriously. The only question becomes, if this continues, what will be “the new normal?” Will we continue to hide away from the virus? Or will we adapt to accept that there is a slightly higher chance of death from infectious disease?

    Like

  3. “Of the 28 students in Ian’s history class, he is often the only person who shows up to school, when it is open for business. ”

    The only one? in person?

    And I was shocked when my son told me that in their online remote break out rooms in Language Arts, the other kids turn off their cameras and don’t talk. He pointed out the issue reviewing his different classes (all remote). His Spanish Lit AP class, he says, works fine in the break out rooms, but the LA class, which is general audience (i.e. not selected based on previous classes — the Spanish class is a 5th year Spanish class) does not. His engineering professor (teaching a general ed class) has invested heavily in the online version, even though the class is poorly designed for online. Kiddo said that the teacher records individual feedback on projects for each student.

    I am now heavily participating in groups discussing reopening our schools; just blocked my first parent after she condescendingly told me that it was ridiculous to imagine that schools were going to reopen and that she’s “sorry that my child isn’t doing well, but that she’s sure he’ll be OK.”

    Like

    1. Yes, Ian is the only one in the room. So, even when school is open, he still isn’t socializing with anyone. Crazy.

      Jonah told me about the break out room problem in his college classes. He said the students just stare at each other and don’t talk.

      Like

    2. I’ve ruminated on that statement, “sorry that my child isn’t doing well, but she’s sure he’ll be OK”, and how realized how very offended I am. I do actually know that my child is going to be OK (and, honestly he’s doing well); I just still think that we need to be moving to plan for in person school because I think there needs to be a plan to move from the inadequacy of remote school. But she certainly doesn’t know that he’s going to be OK and a parent should never say that about a child they do not know (and even if they do know the child, only in the most supportive way to the parent, and only when asked).

      The mom is a classics professor, and one I might encounter elsewhere. Reminds me of the condescension (she questioned my understanding of pedagogy) you say you’ve experienced when they cast you as a suburban mom at school board meetings.

      Like

  4. My only hope for a “end” was in the first month or so, where I thought it might be possible to crush the virus and return to contact tracing. I think that goal failed because this virus is just too easily transmittable (droplet transmission and asymptomatic spread) undermined some of our simplest tools (surface cleaning and symptom checks). I think we could have prevented deaths with better management, but not that we would have returned to “normal”. Although I believe isolation can be used in bursts, even I do not think long term isolation can be used for years.

    I have hopes for vaccination in rich countries (I didn’t at first, but, 95% prevention is really, really good). There’s still the issue of length of immunity and drift in the viruses and world wide transmission and animal pools, but bits of hope. And, potentially, hope in the mRNA vaccine technique, that we’ll be able to make new vaccines as needed targeted appropriately.

    As we have to cope with a new “normal”, though, there have to be changes from the full scale emergency (and not a wait for a rescue). Who will enroll in Rutgers if they continue as they are now? I don’t know Rutger’s model well enough to be able to tell.

    Like

  5. Private K-12 schools are booming; the ones I know are not providing “normal” (one is testing kids on alternate weeks and bringing back 1/2 the kids for 4 days in alternate weeks, another using a hybrid model where some kids come some weeks, and prolonged remote learning after holiday breaks). But, if they are providing some in person education, they are getting lots of applicants. And, some schools (mostly religious) are offering something close to letting all the kids come to school.

    Public schools are free and don’t have admissions, so the effect of choice on them could be limited.

    But, what about the public colleges? I think earlier in the pandemic, people noted that why would you pay 80K for remote education at Harvard when you could get it for 20K at your local public? But now, privates are working to provide something different (mind you, certainly still not normal). My kiddo is back in a dorm, being tested 2x a week, with the possibility (but maybe not the reality) of some in person classes. She’s not taking science or engineering or art or dance classes, though, so feels that the remote model is working for her classes. I think she would be less concerned about remote classes in the fall and more concerned about the lack of non-classroom opportunities, which were very important to her. On the other hand, she’s learning not to over schedule.

    Like

    1. I think earlier in the pandemic, people noted that why would you pay 80K for remote education at Harvard when you could get it for 20K at your local public?

      Even earlier in the pandemic the answer to this was obvious. One would pay 80K a year for four years of remote if it came with membership in the Harvard alumni association at the end. Besides, which, if your household income isn’t in the six figures then Harvard is free and for 90% of the country it is almost certainly cheaper to go to Harvard than to go to your local state school. The only people paying 80K to go to Harvard are people who don’t have to make hard choices about money to begin with.

      Like

      1. Ok, Harvard was the wrong example. I should have said Vassar. The folks at Harvard deferred or took gap years. That’s why Harvard is mostly inviting seniors, Stanford nobody, I think, while there are broader openings at other schools.

        Like

  6. If the lockdowns continue too long, there will be no funds available for remediation. Our state treasurer has told an open meeting:

    Up to 35 percent of retail alcoholic beverage licensees and 20 percent of state licensees may not renew in the new year due to the Covid-19 pandemic’s “major economic toll” on bars and restaurants, according to Treasurer Deb Goldberg.

    https://www.dotnews.com/2020/assessing-covid-damage-bars-and-restaurants

    Many retail stores have closed. Many towns depend upon commercial real estate taxes.
    It is thought that even more retail chains will declare bankruptcy: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/the-state-of-retail-bankruptcies-in-2021/ar-BB1cstHg

    Like

    1. I think states like mine are depending on massive deficit spending transfers from the Feds. Will they get it? I don’t know. It might depend on what Manchin thinks.

      Like

  7. My kids are all in school in person full-time (college freshman, 10th grader and 2nd grader), but I have a few notes from recent experience:

    –The college freshman’s academic experience has been relatively normal this year, with the exception of her in-person Calculus 3 class, where comprehension is suffering due to combination of: instructor with accent, instructor wearing double masks, and instructor making somewhat bizarre technical choices. Fortunately, the college freshman is mathy and (equally importantly) her dad has a math PhD, so I think she’s going to be OK. But it’s going to be killing a bunch of students academically. This is the one case so far where a pure Zoom course might be better educationally.
    –That professor is also frustrated by the situation. He told the class that he’s taught math for 25 years, and if he has to teach like this in the fall, he’ll quit.
    –My husband did a test at the beginning of the year with a variety of different face masks, testing for audibility, and the KN95 maximized protection and sound quality. That’s what he’s wearing in class.
    –My 10th grader is conscientious but social, and he was asking me yesterday what to do about situations where he’s outside and talking to friends, but he’s wearing a mask and they’re not. (The teachers don’t really enforce masks outside.) I told him to stay 6 feet away. He said it’s almost impossible to carry on a conversation like that. I told him 5 feet, then. I also told him that things will be a lot better in a month or two, so tough it out.
    –The 10th grader pointed out to me that on a recent outdoor walk with friends, we didn’t wear masks. I said that a) I had been a little worried afterward and b) I don’t do that 20X a month.
    –The 10th grader is taking AP Physics 1 this year. I’m really, really happy that he is able to do real labs!
    –My 6-year-old nephew in Western WA has been in 100% remote kindergarten all year now.
    –The 2nd grader is having a relatively normal school year, but outside of school, her screen time is off the charts. Unfortunately, we don’t really have a lot of other options right now. I’m hoping that there will be camps open this summer, so that we can start relatively painlessly weaning her from her current level of Netflix and gaming.

    Like

    1. The kids next door are getting a lot of value out of their trampoline. It is quite adorable. They didn’t know how to use it in March, and now are experts. There’s a K & 2st grader, though, so they have built in playmates. They are all remote, though there’s a hope of K-1 in person here.

      My HS kiddo is all remote, with 5 AP classes. He’s doing well but hates it. And, is not getting lab in AP Physics.

      Like

      1. “but outside of school, her screen time is off the charts.”

        This.

        It’s been a really, really long slog to get Mr 13 back to a level of gaming that I feel is under control, and not simply taking over his life.

        We’ve been out of lockdown, now for 4 months – and he’s still got a mindset of ‘skate through schoolwork, then game solidly for the rest of the day’.

        Having let the genie out of the bottle – it’s proving really hard to get it back in again.

        Of course, 2nd grader is different to 13-year-old….. so YMMV.

        Like

      2. Ann wrote, “It’s been a really, really long slog to get Mr 13 back to a level of gaming that I feel is under control, and not simply taking over his life.”

        Outside of school, normal life is something that the 2nd grader fits into those odd minutes when she’s not gaming or watching her shows.

        It wouldn’t be so bad, except she’s also picked up the habit of excitedly monologing about her game and her show whenever she’s not actually gaming or watching her show. It drives her teen siblings bonkers and of course it’s kind of an autistic behavior. (Scratch that–the obsessive monologing about special interests is a super duper autistic behavior.) But it’s hard to remediate this without being able to offer more normal activities beyond extra academic work, mandatory reading, read aloud, walks, rope climbing, etc.

        It could be worse–the 2nd grader is in school in-person full-time–but it could be a lot better.

        The teens do a lot of screen time, too, but it’s less disruptive.

        Like

      3. I should add that the 2nd grader is happy and engaged–it’s just that her circle of engagement is really small.

        Again, I’m really, really hoping that I can get her into some camps this summer.

        If the local water park is open, we’re definitely going to get passes and spend a lot of time there this summer.

        Like

  8. Oh, I stumbled on this from my son’s HS and thought you might find it interesting:

    “DO-IT Scholars is a comprehensive program that empowers students with disabilities to succeed in challenging fields of study and employment. Toward this goal, the program provides students:

    access to technology,
    peer support,
    mentor support,
    college preparation, and
    work-based learning.”

    It doesn’t look like a straight resource, since it seems to be for HS Sophomores. But, they do also share two documents on the things they think work, including an “electronic mentoring community.”

    https://www.washington.edu/doit/programs/do-it-scholars/do-it-scholars-program

    https://www.washington.edu/doit/creating-e-mentoring-community-how-do-it-does-it-and-how-you-can-do-it-too
    https://www.washington.edu/doit/creating-transition-program-teens-how-do-it-does-it-and-how-you-can-do-it-too

    Like

  9. 414,000 dead today of COVID and it hasn’t been a year. Now higher than everything but cancer and heart disease. The CDC estimates 675,000 deaths in the H1N1 1918 pandemic. My new goal is to not reach that but I am not entirely hopeful. And, H1N1 reached that level with no vaccine, no antibiotics to treat secondary infections, no monoclonal antibodies, . . . . I hate that we are reaching similar numbers (though, of course there are a lot more people now).

    Like

    1. bj said, “The CDC estimates 675,000 deaths in the H1N1 1918 pandemic.”

      “(though, of course there are a lot more people now).”

      Yeah. It was a population more than 2/3 smaller than the contemporary US–103 million people in 1918.

      It’s crazy that so many people died in the 1918 flu but it didn’t really leave much of a permanent mark on the US psyche. It would have been a trivia question up until this past year.

      “And, H1N1 reached that level with no vaccine, no antibiotics to treat secondary infections, no monoclonal antibodies.”

      But also no mass air travel.

      Like

      1. “But also no mass air travel.”
        And a population that was *significantly* less mobile. Many people lived and died in the same small town without ever leaving. And relatively few people had cars – so travel was limited to bike (or I suppose horse) locally, and train for longer distances.

        Like

    2. That’s an interesting take —the pandemic occurred in the context of the Great War and had a weird age profile. I’ve always wondered how these personal traumas affect the nation’s psyche. Clearly media and spread of information plays a role. Movements play a role (say the Brady foundation and its origin). We discuss this question at home — kiddo says he feels like the pandemic is life altering. We tell him that when something occupies more than 10% of your life you’ll probably feel that way, but that without a significant personal effect, this will just be one more thing in your life.

      Like

      1. bj said, ” We tell him that when something occupies more than 10% of your life you’ll probably feel that way, but that without a significant personal effect, this will just be one more thing in your life.”

        I think we’ll discover in future that it was life-altering for a lot of people.

        For example, I probably owe my existence to WWII. Not because of any particular dramatic event, but because the war ensured that my grandpa and grandma met each other at a particular time and place where they wouldn’t both have been aside from the war. (My grandma had been living in Arkansas and came up to live with her sister in WA and worked at a Boeing factory inspecting radios for bombers.)

        The pandemic has changed a lot of people’s plans and caused a lot of relocations.

        Like

  10. While the mutated versions may have something nasty in store for us, this is a really good time:

    Nationally, new cases are down 30% over the last 14 days, deaths flat and hospitalizations are down 5%. The new case chart is plunging sharply and downward in a way we’ve never seen before and presumably hospitalizations and deaths are going to follow the trend of new cases within a week or two.

    My county in TX peaked at about 80 cases per 100,000 Nov. 20 and then declined to a persistent high plateau of 60 cases per 100,000 for an uncomfortably long time. I’m pretty sure that without the vaccine, we’d have been parked at that level all winter. But over the last couple weeks, new cases have plunged into the to low 40s and I have no doubt that they will continue to fall, even with a slowish vaccine roll-out.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

    As of yesterday, TX has vaccinated about 5.67 people per 100 so far, with the US as a whole averaging about 6 doses per 100, but we have so many states and territories that are into the double digits or very close: Alaska (12.18), West Virginia (10.18), North Dakota (9.72), Guam (10.46), Northern Marianas (15.01) and American Samoa (13.29). And things are better every day.

    https://rt.live/

    Like

  11. Yes, I’ve been hearing that national levels are going down. Hope we’ll vaccinate fast enough to insulate against the variants.

    We are now at 17/100K.

    Like

    1. bj said, “We are now at 17/100K.”

      I heard a depressing story from my sister in WA today. This is a through-the-grapevine story, so I do not guarantee accuracy of details, but she said that our hometown in WA recently got 300 doses of vaccine to do a 1-day clinic and they wound up throwing out 35 doses because they couldn’t get hold of enough eligible people.

      I hope this was an early rollout issue that has been worked out, not a continuing problem.

      Like

    2. Parents got their first dose of the Pfizer vaccine today. The scheduling was a bit of a mess, but given that their phase became eligible only Monday, I am not complaining very much, though I was quite cranky midweek.

      I heard reports about discarded vaccines earlier, too, when only Phase 1a (health care workers + nursing homes) were eligible. Now, WA is trying to address the issue by making the vaccine availability and not the people who are eligible the rate limiting step. 2 million people are eligible now, including people who can get vaccines by volunteering at vaccine centers. It frustrating because with 2 million eligible, appointments are hard to come by and there’s no central scheduling. But it means there are people available for the vaccines.

      But, I can imagine that some rural and remote clinics end up throwing away vaccines. They have ore flexibility to give vaccines out of phase, but I can imagine small clinics still not finding arms.

      Like

      1. bj wrote:

        “Parents got their first dose of the Pfizer vaccine today.”

        “2 million people are eligible now, including people who can get vaccines by volunteering at vaccine centers.”

        Nice!

        “But, I can imagine that some rural and remote clinics end up throwing away vaccines.”

        Yep.

        https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

        Related: I see that the Federal Indian Health Service has only used about 40% of their allotted vaccine. (The Bureau of Prisons has used up 94%, which they deserve a lot of credit for–that’s going to save a lot of lives. Captive audience, though…)

        Like

  12. Laura wrote, “What If This Doesn’t End?”

    I think that what we are vaccinating against is going to end sooner rather than later (and I’ve actually been surprised how quickly things are improving) and we’re going to reach the point very soon where COVID-19 is a flu-level nuisance.

    However, there are the new mutated versions to worry about. I don’t even know what to think about that yet, although I hope that we have strong enough travel restrictions.

    Like

    1. The variants are already here. I am more pessimistic than you, but I am always more pessimistic than you. It would be delightful if the current downturn holds and if it is being helped along by vaccines (because unlike non-pharmaceutical interventions which are relaxed when things seem good, the vaccine will keep on ticking). I am also hopeful that the mRNA vaccines can be modified to address other variants if they have to be.

      Like

      1. bj said, “The variants are already here.”

        It would be nice to have less of them to deal with, rather than more.

        “It would be delightful if the current downturn holds and if it is being helped along by vaccines (because unlike non-pharmaceutical interventions which are relaxed when things seem good, the vaccine will keep on ticking).”

        Right.

        “I am also hopeful that the mRNA vaccines can be modified to address other variants if they have to be.”

        We’ve also got some seasonal advantages about to kick in. Based on last year, I think/hope that the sunbelt should start doing even better very soon in the spring just based on seasonality, while a lot of northern states will have a good summer. (Summer in the sunbelt wasn’t great, though, just like spring was bad in the NE.)

        Like

      2. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm

        The UK variant is in 12 states (at least.) The UK variant is predicted to be the predominant variant in the US in March. Also of interest is that some other variants are showing mutations that reduce the reliability of tests, and reduce the efficacy of antibody treatments.

        I think this is the hardest time. It looks like the cavalry are coming, but it’s actually a time to be even more vigilant about hygiene, social distancing, etc. I fear people will let down their guard too soon.

        I do think this will change things. I think movie theaters are dead. I think restaurants will come back. For me, it’s a question of risk assessments. I would travel on an airplane to help a family member. I would not sign up for a cruise.

        Like

  13. I’ve gotten to be a huge vaccine progress nerd, so please indulge me.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

    Here are the top states for shots per 100 (the national average is 6.4): Alaska (12.18), West Virginia (11.0), North Dakota (9.72), New Mexico (8.87), South Dakota (8.73), Connecticut (8.61) and Vermont (8.29). Outside the states, we have Northern Marianas (15.63), American Samoa (13.82), Guam (10.46) and District of Columbia (8.47).

    The good states and territories are very good! (Some of these areas–like Alaska and the islands–are getting an especially generous supply of vaccine.)

    The EU has done 1.87 shots per 100, with Germany at 1.96 and France at 1.49.

    The following countries have done 3 or more shots per 100: Israel (38.05), UAE (22.58), Seychelles (17.59), Bahrain (9.71), UK (9.48), US (6.42), Malta (3.6), Iceland (3.58) and Denmark (3.38).

    The population of those countries is:

    Israel 9 million
    UAE 9.8 million
    Seychelles Seychelles 98k
    Bahrain 1.6 million
    UK 66.7 million
    US 328 million
    Malta 503k
    Iceland 357k
    Denmark 5.8 million

    As @politicalmath has noted, the UK and the US are the only countries on the list with populations over 10 million.

    Like

    1. I like looking at the Bloomberg tracker, too. But, I think we have to be careful in analyzing the results if we are using them to inform best practices. Washington, for example, was upsetting me less than a week ago, when we were 45th in the percent of vaccines administered. We’ve moved way up now and from what I’m hearing, we will continue to do better.

      And I am very impressed with whatever ND, SD,and Alaska are doing, especially if they are getting vaccines out of their cities (though, potentially, they are not). But, ND & SD & AK have administered <100,000 vaccines (excellent, that they are using their vaccines). But the logistics to administer 77K vaccines is entirely different from administering the 2 million California has administered). I think the states that are working on logistics are learning and improving. In Washington, I continue to have a high opinion of decision making here. The decisions are imperfect and the logistics are imperfect but, there is a constant striving to do better. It was very measurable in the scheduling/DOH sites compared with Tuesday to Friday.

      My parents were completely satisfied with their vaccination experience. They said people were friendly, helpful, that masking/distancing protocols were being followed, that there were small things like having chaired arrayed along the waiting line so that older people could sit down. They felt they got appropriate information to get their follow up dose (they'll be sent a link, they were told, and they should schedule as soon as they got the link).

      Like

    2. bj said, “I like looking at the Bloomberg tracker, too. But, I think we have to be careful in analyzing the results if we are using them to inform best practices.”

      The thing about Bloomberg is–we’re at least that good.

      “And I am very impressed with whatever ND, SD,and Alaska are doing, especially if they are getting vaccines out of their cities (though, potentially, they are not). But, ND & SD & AK have administered <100,000 vaccines (excellent, that they are using their vaccines). But the logistics to administer 77K vaccines is entirely different from administering the 2 million California has administered)."

      Right. I think there are some lessons here that we need to hold onto for the future about how large scale can create problems all by itself.

      "In Washington, I continue to have a high opinion of decision making here. The decisions are imperfect and the logistics are imperfect but, there is a constant striving to do better."

      Things are getting better–and that's been true practically all over. I was delighted, for example, to see on the Bloomberg labeled "daily vaccinations in the US" that for the first time, the US has had 4 days in a row over 1 million: 1.6 million, 1.4, 1.3, 1.4–with that last one being a Saturday! There's a lot of momentum right now. NY has made tremendous improvements–they're now the fastest of the 4 biggest states.

      I do agree, though, with the people that think that the Biden administration's 100 shots in 100 days plan is way too unambitious.

      "My parents were completely satisfied with their vaccination experience. They said people were friendly, helpful, that masking/distancing protocols were being followed, that there were small things like having chaired arrayed along the waiting line so that older people could sit down."

      Very good! I was just reading a news story from our town in TX about how the local community college nursing students are being deployed to staff the mass clinics that we've started having.

      Like

    3. I’m looking to Israel to see where the effective herd immunity level of immunization is. At nearly 40% we should start to see some effect on infection rates. And at the rate they’re vaccinating they’ll be approaching 60% soon.

      However, Israel should be materially concerned about the vaccination rates of the nearby Palestinian Territory. Regardless of your opinion about the rights and wrongs of occupation – there are tens of thousands of people who migrate in and out of the West Bank on a daily basis – where the non-Israeli population have no prospect of vaccination at this stage. This is a potential hotbed of virus mutation – which is highly likely to breed a variant *not* covered by the current vaccine.

      Like

      1. Ann said, “I’m looking to Israel to see where the effective herd immunity level of immunization is. At nearly 40% we should start to see some effect on infection rates. And at the rate they’re vaccinating they’ll be approaching 60% soon.”

        I just saw this:

        https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-sees-60-drop-in-hospitalizations-for-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/

        “The decrease in hospital admissions is swift after vaccination, Maccabi suggests in its latest data, finding that hospitalizations start to fall sharply from Day 18 after people receive the first shot. Galia Rahav, head of infectious diseases at Israel’s largest hospital, Sheba Medical Center, described the data as “very important.””

        “By Day 23, which is 2 days after the second shot, there is a 60% drop in hospitalizations among vaccinated people aged 60-plus, Maccabi revealed after monitoring 50,777 patients. It compared their hospitalization rate at that point with their hospitalization rate soon after receiving the vaccine, using 7-day moving averages.”

        “Maccabi’s graph gives a real picture of infection in Israel, showing that until Day 13, vaccinated over-60s had similar infection rates as the overall 60-plus population. Then, a gap opens, and by Day 23, there were 18 daily infections among the 50,777 overall, but just six among the vaccinated.”

        Like

  14. Here’s a happy chart (the top one):

    The UK peaked around January 8 and their new COVID cases have dropped 38% over the past two weeks, despite the UK being home to one of the new COVID variants.

    (The UK started vaccinated a week earlier than the US and has done nearly 50% more shots per 100 than the US.)

    Like

    1. The UK started a draconian lockdown on January 6th. As it is thought that new infections can start appearing 3 days after exposure, any reduction in cases is more likely to be the lockdown rather than vaccination.

      https://www.goodto.com/family/january-lockdown-uk-2021-coronavirus-rules-restrictions-568846

      Stay at home at all times, wherever possible

      This means we’re back to staying inside for most of the day. But there are some conditions in which you are allowed to leave the house, if needed:

      To go to work if you cannot work from home (such as keyworkers, those in construction, etc)
      To shop for basic necessities such as food or medical supplies
      For exercise under lockdown restrictions, only once per day
      To meet your support bubble or childcare bubble if necessary
      To seek medical assistance or avoid injury, illness or risk of harm

      As schools and colleges are closed, schools exams for 2021 cancelled and all learning taken online, only vulnerable children and children of key workers are allowed to travel outside the home for education, as they will still be allowed to attend school if needed. Nurseries will stay open to provide essential childcare and childminders can continue to work.

      There are also new lockdown rules on travel, similar to that of the November lockdown, where travel is strongly advised against. Also from now on, the UK will also not be accepting arrivals from other countries if they don’t have a negative coronavirus test.

      Any kind of social mixing with people that you don’t live with or aren’t in a support bubble, or childcare bubble with, is not allowed either inside or outside.

      Although, you can meet for exercise with one other person from outside your household if you keep at a 2 metre distance at all times. All team sports events are off the table, however, with golf courses and outdoor swimming pools closed.

      In terms of deaths per 100,000 in the last 7 days (as of 1/21/2021), according to JHU from the CDC website, the UK leads the world, at 13.1. For comparison, the next 5 countries on the list have rates of 12.6, 10.4, 9.9, 9.6, 9.1.

      So I would not say that it’s a happy story of vaccination having turned the tide in the UK. And it does look as if the UK variant is more deadly. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#global-counts-rates

      In addition, don’t forget that many colleges in the US took a longer than normal winter break. As students return to campuses, more contagion is possible.

      Like

      1. Seems like you are a pessimist like me. I also agree that all those worries are concerning. But they are also not predictable and it is not impossible for things to be better (though the pandemic has disappointed me many times already).

        Like

      2. That list of UK exceptions looks like Swiss cheese. I wonder how much of a reduction in social contact it has actually caused.

        Cranberry wrote, “In terms of deaths per 100,000 in the last 7 days (as of 1/21/2021), according to JHU from the CDC website, the UK leads the world, at 13.1.”

        Deaths are very much a lagging indicator, though. If the UK has only had two weeks of lower cases, I don’t know that we’d see a lot of impact yet on deaths.

        “In addition, don’t forget that many colleges in the US took a longer than normal winter break. As students return to campuses, more contagion is possible.”

        At the same time, some campuses are ramping up their surveillance. Hometown U., for example, has gone from testing everybody in the campus community (students, staff and contractors) once a week, as opposed to 10% a week in the fall. That’s in addition to existing dorm sewer surveillance, contact tracing, and having quarantine facilities and a COVID hotel. Also, spring break is cancelled and the spring term has been compressed. If everybody is very good, they may get one whole Friday off in March…

        In other news, I think this comparison of restriction ending in Feb. versus in late July is extremely dubious.

        This model treats the public like a light switch that you can just turn off and on at will. I think in practice that a lot of people will either anticipate opening or hold onto personal restrictions longer than required. Also, I’m afraid that a lot of people would look at the Feb. hypothetical and go, “Looks good to me!” Heck, I haven’t had a professional haircut or eaten in a restaurant in 10 months and it looks pretty good to me.

        I see that the Israelis are starting to vaccinate teens with 2003 and 2004 birthdates:

        https://nypost.com/2021/01/23/teenagers-now-receiving-covid-19-vaccine-in-israel/?

        “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to inoculate all citizens over the age of 16 by the end of March.”

        Like

Comments are closed.