Noah Smith has a good newsletter post about a new class that he sees emerging — The Haut Precariat.
There’s another class — people raised middle- or upper-middle class, but… have failed to get on either the income ladder of high-paying yuppie jobs or the wealth ladder of homeownership, and who are thus perpetually in danger of falling down out of the class into which they were born. I want to call these people the haut precariat.
Smith said this group has been crippled by student loan debt, the Great Recession, the overproduction of elites, and the ridiculous home values around major cities. Despite their quality education and wealthy families, they are in danger of slipping down on the income ladder. (Steve, read this, so we can chat about it at dinner tonight.)
Gawker is back, so now I know all about the latest style in Hollywood nose jobs.
Best tweet that I read this week and forgot where it came from went something like… “My friend came out as trans last year. This year, he came out as autistic, so he really came out as trains.”
Annie Lowery in the Atlantic has a piece about the burden on that government social services place on recipients. Hell yeah. You wouldn’t believe what those assholes do to parents of disabled kids and adults. And it’s getting worse. I’m going to tie this article to Simone Biles tomorrow. Really.
I am continuing my own wellness journey this week, which has included daily runs, trivia night with the girls at a bar, and mostly ignoring chores.
Apt. 11d 
“I am continuing my own wellness journey this week, which has included daily runs, trivia night with the girls at a bar, and mostly ignoring chores.”
Good for you. Chores are really overrated.
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It’s great you can run and drink. I’m having trouble with both right now because my ankles and stomach are for shit. I’m taking up swimming with the elderly.
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I can’t run and drink simultaneously.
About the “haut precariat.” Hmm. This isn’t new, is it? Isn’t that the plot of _The House of Mirth_?
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Yes! Not new, not at all… Every governess in a country house novel is on a downward trend from hope. We now have a LOT of twennysomethings who were raised to expect better. Suze Orman prancing around on stage and saying ‘student debt is GOOD debt’ and her acolytes now have taken on hundred and fifty grand in debt for their barista kids’ sociology degrees.
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Dave Schutz, it’s not just that. Most people in the country can’t afford to rent an apartment in NYC, San Francisco, or LA. It’s not really a supply issue, either–when demand is effectively infinite, it’s not possible to build enough to satisfy it.
It’s best illustrated by the recent Vanity Fair article about the Hamptons: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/07/hamptons-new-headache-even-richer-people
I found it to be very funny, but I have a dark sense of humor. It’s like those pictures of overcrowed college pool parties. It doesn’t look like fun, but what do I know?
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I find that article fun, too, and I know about even richer people. Though the people who summered in the Hamptons when they were six are even richer people to me, too. I am wondering who carries $50 bills around and imagining that it must have something to do with drugs.
There have always been people who are downwardly mobile. But I do think there are features of the modern downwardly mobile child of professionals that are new, and one of the features is a sign of competition that goes beyond their class (including from immigrants).
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Fifty dollar bills are common in the new ATMs. You get to pick how you want your money in fifties, twenties, and fives. Because of that, I’ll usually have a fifty or two with me.
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I guess I’d buy drugs with them if I didn’t look too old to buy them.
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I am a big fan of running and drinking at the same time. One of my favorite local 5Ks involves a big free beer at the finish line. There’s another one that goes between the breweries of Brooklyn. I want to try that.
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Sounds fun, but there is no point in my life when that wouldn’t have made me feel ill.
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Off topic but I am very excited. Boyfriend and I go are going to spend a long weekend next weekend here:https://www.themohicans.net/treehouses/
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Oooh! Looks super fun!
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So cute!
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My guy Vinay Prasad (MD MPH and author of Ending Medical Reversal and Malignant: How Bad Policy and Bad Evidence Harm People With Cancer) has a video here on the failure to do randomized controlled trials of NPIs during the pandemic:
https://mobile.twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1420788835462434817
He’s a bit ranty in this particular video, but the points are fair: everybody was so eager to start doing SOMETHING that nobody bothered to figure out if it was actually working.
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Matt Yglesias has some interesting tweets on US declines in social trust.
He writes:
“The thing about all of this is that unless you’re a professional scientist talking about a super-specific area that you work on, all of our “knowledge” is a form of social trust that’s not really grounded in specific information.”
“We’re living through an epic collapse of trust not just in the government or “the experts” or the media or the public health community, but in *other people writ large* and nothing is really knowable under those circumstances.”
[Cites chart showing collapse in social trust in US.]
“Like I believe that I know what a spike protein is, but that’s just because someone told me and I believe her.”
That’s a really good point. At least 95% of the public isn’t in a position to personally “do the research” about whether or not COVID vaccination is safe or effective–we just don’t have the training. We non-experts have to make the decision based on faith. And if you don’t have faith in the competence, honesty and benevolence of the powers that be that want you to get vaccinated–well, that’s a problem.
The CDC needs to start putting in more work on competence and honesty, as opposed to (badly) attempting to herd the US public toward desired outcomes. They’re not that smart, and a lot of people see through it and resent it.
That said, well over 600,000 people a day are getting a COVID shot in the US right now.
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“We non-experts have to make the decision based on faith. And if you don’t have faith in the competence, honesty and benevolence of the powers that be that want you to get vaccinated–well, that’s a problem.”
Well, I don’t like the word “faith” because to me faith implies a lack of verification. As a non-believer in God, doing an internet search, and get definitions like “Christian faith, Christian belief, has to do with a radical trust in God. It does not mean trusting in the truth of a set of statements about God; it means trusting in God.” https://www.ssje.org/2013/04/07/what-it-means-to-have-faith-in-god-br-david-vryhof/
I don’t know who Vryhof is or if he reflects any commonality of thought on Christian faith, but I am trying to differentiate from what my understanding of “trust the science” is in opposition to faith in God.
Most of us are non-experts who rely on scientific trust, even scientists who know what the spike protein is, and we become more non-experts when the questions get more complicated or specific. So trust is a requirement. But, it is trust/faith in the form of “intellectual assent” (as Vryhof writes). We can question and find the expertise wanting with sufficient expertise.
But, maybe part of the level of expertise needed to do those verification is higher than the general population has. I take a great deal of knowledge in biology for granted and since I don’t consider myself an expert in most of it, I may overestimate the level of verification that can be done the average person. And, that would be tough for me, if I had to trust a person without possibility of questioning. I don’t trust the CDC, I trust a set of statements made by them about vaccines. Radical trust in the CDC would be a lot to ask. for.
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bj said, “Well, I don’t like the word “faith” because to me faith implies a lack of verification.”
I think that for you, as a person with a very sophisticated STEM education, it’s hard to understand how much it really is a matter of faith for more normal people. Those of us who don’t have that kind of education and training really aren’t in any kind of realistic position to “do the research.” It really has to be a matter of trust…if you like that word better.
There’s that quote about how any sufficiently complex piece of technology is impossible to distinguish from magic…and that’s where normal Americans are at this point.
“But, maybe part of the level of expertise needed to do those verification is higher than the general population has.”
It’s worse than that–look at all the nurses who aren’t getting COVID vaccines.
“I may overestimate the level of verification that can be done the average person.”
Yep. Consider, for example, the fact that crazy is free and readily available on the internet, whereas more respectable information tends to be paywalled up…
“And, that would be tough for me, if I had to trust a person without possibility of questioning. I don’t trust the CDC, I trust a set of statements made by them about vaccines. Radical trust in the CDC would be a lot to ask. for.”
Right. I was just watching a clip where Francis Collins (really smart guy and head of the NIH) was telling some journalists that it might sound crazy, but parents should mask at home (!) in the presence of their unvaccinated children.
Honestly, when a respected public official says something obviously nuts like that, how are normal people supposed to believe that they know what they are talking about the rest of the time, about things that we are in a much worse position to confirm what they say? Say, with regard to vaccination safety or other appropriate COVID safety measures.
(Twitter is being difficult today about links, but the clip is at https://mobile.twitter.com/tomselliott from 4 hours ago, and it’s taken from a CNN Special Report.)
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Francis Collins says he misspoke about wanting parents to mask up at home around their unvaccinated kids.
On the one hand, whew, on the other hand, if he meant masking in public to protect kids at home, why did he say that it would sound crazy?
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An example of trust but verify would be people changing their decision about whether they get the vaccine because they see non-vaccinated people around them getting sick and dying. If you are really resistant to the vaccine and worried about it, that might be the evidence that you need.
My only hope would be that people would take smaller actions (wearing masks) with less evidence and more trust, but I can see how in our low trust world across political/educational divides, even that might be a difficult ask. The cost could be more deaths, but we will only know looking backwards.
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bj said, “An example of trust but verify would be people changing their decision about whether they get the vaccine because they see non-vaccinated people around them getting sick and dying.”
The level of risk has changed radically since this spring for much of the sunbelt. There were quite a number of states with low vaccination rates that were cruising along at 4 cases per 100k per day until very recently. On the other hand, a bunch of northern states were getting walloped in April.
A lot of vaccinations are happening right now.
“My only hope would be that people would take smaller actions (wearing masks) with less evidence and more trust, but I can see how in our low trust world across political/educational divides, even that might be a difficult ask.”
I think that having been through a really deadly winter where just about everybody masked in public places, there’s a very reasonable level of doubt that it made much of a difference. Do we honestly think that cloth masks stop Delta? Also, the current CDC messaging makes it seem like masks are the gold standard of protection and vaccinations are an afterthought, when it should be the reverse.
Some ideas:
1. It really is time to lower the boom on hospital workers and nursing home workers. If they’re working with vulnerable people, they need to be vaccinated. Give ’em a bonus for doing it, but they need to do it. We can’t go into another winter with unvaccinated hospital and nursing home workers.
2. It’s laughable for the teachers’ unions to fight return to school and to insist on kids being all vaccinated first while resisting vaccination for themselves. In a school building, unvaccinated adults are the most likely source of infection. Unions need to put up or shut up. If they’re so worried about COVID–make sure that the membership is vaccinated.
3. It’s time for booster shots for high risk people. The UK, Germany and Israel are all doing it.
4. High risk and anxious people need to use better masks if they’re going to mask.
5. This is going to make some people mad, but I think it’s time to message that if you’ve had COVID, 1 shot is fine, and that in general, 1 shot is better than no shot at all.
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“Yep. Consider, for example, the fact that crazy is free and readily available on the internet, whereas more respectable information tends to be paywalled up…”
I would disagree that more scientific information is pay walled (lots at the CDC, including the base data, and reasonable analysis). I don’t really understand why the crazy stuff (vaccines makes you magnetic) gains traction (especially when it is so easily falsifiable). The non-evidenced based stuff (the fertility concerns, for example, or that covid infection might provide greater protection than the vaccine, one shot v two, the protectiveness of masks, though, does seem to depend a lot on trust (not faith, in my mind). Almost all of us have to rely on trust for that information, and, even more than trust, the understanding that we really don’t know how effective different masks will be until far after we make decisions.
I think we’ve reached the stage where mandatory vaccinations are necessary for workers in hospitals, nursing homes, schools, prisons. I think employer mandated vaccines make sense in a number of settings (Tyson’s has just announced mandatory vaccines, for example). Given the current communicability of the virus, I think employers are going to need vaccines to manage staffing, especially if people cannot work when sick.
I’m agree on boosters. But, really, I don’t think I understand the decision on boosters better than the experts. I do think that if they are considering other factors — boosters being suggested decreasing vaccine uptake, concerns about making vaccines available to the larger world population, . . . . they should be clear that those factors are influencing the policy decision. I think that transparency is unavoidable even when it seems dangerous; it might not help in the second guessing of non-experts without full understanding of all the data on things like boosters, the kind of masks, or one or two shots, but I do think lack of transparency is harmful.
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I’m always hitting paywalls, but it’s true that I don’t spend a lot of time at the CDC site.
” I don’t really understand why the crazy stuff (vaccines makes you magnetic) gains traction (especially when it is so easily falsifiable). The non-evidenced based stuff (the fertility concerns, for example, or that covid infection might provide greater protection than the vaccine, one shot v two, the protectiveness of masks, though, does seem to depend a lot on trust.”
There are so many concerns: I’ve already had COVID (or I think I’ve had COVID), fear of infertility, fear of myocarditis in the young, fear of blood clots, concern that the vaccines aren’t fully approved, concern that they were rushed, concern that we won’t see all the negative results for a few years, belief that COVID only hurts old people or fat people or sick people or people that don’t exercise and eat right. I’ve seen a lot of health pelagianism out there–the belief that if you are a clean living, healthy person who exercises and takes their zinc and Vitamin D, COVID is no big deal. So if you get the shots, it’s an admission that you aren’t in perfect physical condition…There are also problems with the return to mask recommendations, which suggests that getting vaccinated doesn’t really do anything for you. People also feel that the public health establishment never wants to let go, that there’s no finish line, no off-ramp.
“I think we’ve reached the stage where mandatory vaccinations are necessary for workers in hospitals, nursing homes, schools, prisons. I think employer mandated vaccines make sense in a number of settings (Tyson’s has just announced mandatory vaccines, for example). Given the current communicability of the virus, I think employers are going to need vaccines to manage staffing, especially if people cannot work when sick.”
Some of those employers are going to have a heck of a time staying staffed up, given the tight labor market.
“I think that transparency is unavoidable even when it seems dangerous; it might not help in the second guessing of non-experts without full understanding of all the data on things like boosters, the kind of masks, or one or two shots, but I do think lack of transparency is harmful.”
The CDC’s approach on a lot of these issues can be summarized as: “Do this, dummy.”
Given the CDC’s epic flip-flopping over the past 18 months, a lot of people feel like CDC guidelines are like the weather: If you don’t like them, wait 5 minutes–they will change.
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There is evidence that vaccine immunity is waning:
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/coronavirus-delta-variant-is-50-percent-more-infectious-israeli-top-official-says-1.10068650
“We compare people — both over the age of 60 but also between 16 and 59 — who were immunized early on and fully vaccinated by the end of January. We see infection rates among them that is 90 per 100,000, which is double of those who are fully vaccinated by March,” she said, adding that “we see a drop in the vaccine effectiveness against disease for those who have been vaccinated early on, and we see it for both elderly people over the age of 60 but also for the younger.”
She explained that Israel’s decision to make available a booster shot is based on evidence of the difference between infection rates in those who were vaccinated early on and those vaccinated later, but also the evidence of increased hospitalizations of severe and critical cases among the 60 and above population who are fully immunized.
I had heard about waning immunity, showing up in the people who were the first to be vaccinated, from another source as well.
Then there’s the lambda version, which may be even better at evading vaccines.
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Francis Collins is a geneticist, known for finding the gene that causes cystic fibrosis, neurofibromatosis, and as part of the collaboration that discovered the gene that causes Huntington’s chorea. He headed the human genome project and is the current director of NIH.
He is not an infectious disease expert and though very well respected as a scientist, he would not be my source for the efficacy or necessity of masks (though he does understand exponential curves). I think that he is speaking more publicly on the issue because of the trust equation — he is an evangelical Christian who is very open about his faith. The evidence that speakers from within one’s own community are the most effective at convincing individuals is driving some of the messaging right now (paying influencers as an example) and I think that’s the hope for having Collins publicly state opinions on masks or vaccines (since evangelical Christians have the lowest uptake among many groups). https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/03/southern-pastors-vaccines-497898
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Ibram X. Kendi tweets:
“To celebrate the 40th birthday of my friend Meghan Markle, The Duchess of Sussex, I’m donating 40 minutes of mentorship time to a woman reentering the workforce. Will you join me?”
What an amazing offer.
40 whole minutes of mentoring for a woman reentering the workplace!
This is an initiative that Meghan Markle is apparently heading up.
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Lots of commentary from people who really are active in this area – is that this is likely to do a lot more harm than good – and dismissing it as a publicity stunt.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/royal/1472486/Meghan-Markle-news-duchess-of-sussex-birthday-archewell-website-video-40×40-mentor-scheme
Celebrities have zero understanding of the realities faced by working-class women.
And, this kind of well-meaning (to put the kindest interpretation on it), but poorly thought out action, is more likely to damage the self-esteem of the women concerned, than support it. Mentoring takes a lot longer than 40 minutes – to make a difference you have to be there for the long haul.
Right now, the job market (certainly here in NZ) is very favourable to women (or men for that matter) re-entering the workforce. Employers are crying out for workers- and are more likely, than ever before, to be flexible about hours, etc.
What the women need most is practical assistance: CV writing, interview presentation, having something appropriate to wear for an interview (we have a charity here, which does just that), assistance with childcare, financial support for childcare (doesn’t make much sense to work if 90% of your salary goes to daycare). A booster interview with a celebrity just isn’t going to make a difference.
Of course, if you’re a professional re-entering the workforce – you probably won’t need these services – but you won’t need a band of celebrity cheerleaders, either.
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Nobody involved with this seems to understand the meaning of the word “mentoring.” A mentor is a person who works in your field or close to it, who you spend significant face time with, and who is willing to give you time and support when you need it–not just a one-off.
(To be fair, I bet 40 minutes with somebody like Oprah would really set you up, regardless of what your goals were. But very, very few people have Oprah’s gift of encouragement.)
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I think that opening the schools full time would help a lot more people than one person getting less than an hour of Oprah’s time. Women don’t need encouragement to get back to work. They need the opportunity. So insulting to women, really.
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I’m remembering the classic “drowning high five” meme:
https://meme.market/meme-create/3/drowning-high-five
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Anybody watching The Prince on HBO Max? From the South Park folks?
I wouldn’t normally, but find the obsession with Megan Markle pretty strange and kind of enjoyed the uproar reported in the WaPost (though I do agree that children of celebrities, like the eponymous Prince should be off limits) and enjoyed watching the one episode in which Harry doesn’t understand a refrigerator or an “apartment” and Megan roles her eyes mildly funny.
Ibram Kendi is a faculty member (though he might also be a celebrity).
One of the takes I’m getting from the Megan/Harry move is the Black celebrity social network it unveils to us (I didn’t know who Tyler Perry was, but he’s a billionaire? Oprah, and, now, Ibram Kendi?).
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The blind gossip blogs are saying that Megan Markle had to cancel her 40th bday party, because everybody wanted to go to Obama’s party instead and the Obamas didn’t invite Megan and Harry.
They also say that Britney is totally off the rails right now.
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bj said, “One of the takes I’m getting from the Megan/Harry move is the Black celebrity social network it unveils to us (I didn’t know who Tyler Perry was, but he’s a billionaire? Oprah, and, now, Ibram Kendi?).”
It does feel like they all hang out together!
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Yeah, kind of like the daughters of Springsteen, Gates, Jobs, and Bloomberg all riding horses together at the same farms.
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Bloomberg, too
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The NY Times reports that Louisiana is seeing the highest case rates and the highest hospitalizations since the early days of the epidemic. But, that vaccine uptake has quadrupled. I understand people’s desires to *see* the evidence before they make decisions. People sick, in the hospital, and dying is evidence and does seem to change people’s minds. I wish there were evidence that convinced people without the trauma.
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I’m glad it’s happening now, while the weather is good for outdoor things in most of the country and school is a few weeks away from starting.
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MH said, “I’m glad it’s happening now, while the weather is good for outdoor things in most of the country and school is a few weeks away from starting.”
The Sunbelt is not very nice outside right now, but it is true that summer Delta is a test run for whatever it is we get in the winter when we can expect that all of the winter regional surges are going to sync up into one big surge.
Quite a few high-case states seem to have peaked or be close to peaking. Louisiana looks like it’s flattening out, and about time. (I believe the UK peaked out around 75 cases per 100k.)
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