A couple of days ago, I wondered whether the 2020 election was going to be a landslide for Joe Biden or a nail biter with a very tight vote between Biden and Trump.
A nail biter. That’s was it was. And still is.
At this moment, there is a 20,000 vote different between Biden and Trump in Georgia. 20,000 votes. That’s pocket change votes in this country! That’s a rounding error!
Two days after the election, we still don’t know for sure who is the winner in several key states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. Some think that Biden will get the slimmest-of-slim win in the electoral college – 270 votes.
Here’s what I am finding interesting and what is worrying me:
It’s not hard for me to understand why states like New Jersey traditionally go blue and why states like North Dakota traditionally go red. Each state has its own political cultures, economic bases, urban/rural make-ups. And Trump won easily in ND, and Biden in NJ.
I am finding fascinating the intra-state politics in this election. Within individual states, the vote is extremely 50/50. That tells me that that state-level variables don’t matter. Other variables are taking precedence.
Which gets back to the big question — why did 68 million people vote for Trump and why did 72 million people vote for Biden? Did economic interests take precedence with high income individuals voting for Trump for low taxes and small business voting for Trump because they feared more shutdowns? Or were people voting against the progressive wing of the Democratic Party? I think it is super important that we get some answers to that question in the next month.
Random thought: The mail-in votes did not all go for Biden.
Biden is going to win barring some last minute news. But he’s going to have a devil of a time getting things. He cannot say that he has a mandate. Trump is going to be a loudmouth in the wings, undermining him at every turn for four years setting the state for Don Jr. to run for office 2024. His shadow government is going to be way worse than the past four years, because he’ll have no checks, no professional bureaucrats keeping him in. He’ll have zero shits to give and that is very scary.
We have to talk about the Latino vote. A couple of weeks ago, my cousin Jeff told him that his brother, who lives in Florida, his wife, and her parents are major Trump voters, showing up to his rallies and putting big flags on their front lawn. In some ways this isn’t surprising, my Florida cousin has done really well in the oil industry; they live in a big house in a gated community in West Palm Beach. But they are also People of Color. He’s half Italian/half Indian. She is Puerto Rican, with very similar history as AOC – Bronx born, Westchester, NY raised. They don’t identify as POC.
I’ve got more, but we have some family business going on here this morning. Will be back later this afternoon.