House Speaker Ryan is Out

Paul Ryan just announced that he is not going to seek reelection. Trump killed his career. Now, let’s see who else is going to leave office. There will be more. Because Democrats are going to kill in November’s election.

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28 thoughts on “House Speaker Ryan is Out

  1. I will settle for “sane people are going to kill in November’s election.”

    My standards are so low at this point.

  2. I agree with the second part, about the probable results in November, but I’m not sure Ryan’s situation is really Trump’s fault. Speaker of the House is a dead end, unpleasant job these days, because the Republicans are so divided, and political rhetoric on all sides so overheated, that whoever does it ends up unpopular, ineffective, and unhappy. The results would have been the same under a President Rubio or Kasich.

    Not sure being the Democratic Speaker is any better, but I guess we’ll find out.

    1. We found out from 2007 to 2011, too. She kept the caucus unified, wasn’t pushed out of power by a crazy faction, and delivered major legislation that was important to her constituents and her party.

      One of these sides is not like the other.

      1. I don’t recall too much legislation between 2007 and 2009. Just one brief shining moment (or however you see it) with a new administration and a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. The new (or resurrected) Democratic speaker will not be in that situation.

        And both the blogosphere and my fb feed (my primary sources of insight on the public mood) reflect lots of Democratic carping these days about Pelosi. The level of fractiousness has increased, and the level of civility decreased, a lot since 2011. See here for an example: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-03-20/nancy-pelosi-is-the-wrong-target-for-democrats

    2. List of major legislation passed by the 111th Congress, 2009-2011:

      January 29, 2009: Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2009, Pub.L. 111–2
      February 4, 2009: Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (SCHIP), Pub.L. 111–3
      February 17, 2009: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), Pub.L. 111–5
      March 11, 2009: Omnibus Appropriations Act, 2009, Pub.L. 111–8
      March 30, 2009: Omnibus Public Land Management Act of 2009, Pub.L. 111–11
      April 21, 2009: Edward M. Kennedy Serve America Act, Pub.L. 111–13
      May 20, 2009: Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009, Pub.L. 111–21
      May 20, 2009: Helping Families Save Their Homes Act of 2009, Pub.L. 111–22
      May 22, 2009: Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009, Pub.L. 111–23
      May 22, 2009: Credit CARD Act of 2009, Pub.L. 111–24
      June 22, 2009: Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, as Division A of Pub.L. 111–31
      June 24, 2009: Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2009 including the Car Allowance Rebate System (Cash for Clunkers), Pub.L. 111–32
      October 28, 2009: National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2010, including the Matthew Shepard and James Byrd, Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act, Pub.L. 111–84
      November 6, 2009: Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009, Pub.L. 111–92
      December 16, 2009: Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2010, Pub.L. 111–117
      February 12, 2010: Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act, as Title I of Pub.L. 111–139
      March 4, 2010: Travel Promotion Act of 2009, as Section 9 of Pub.L. 111–145
      March 18, 2010: Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act, Pub.L. 111–147
      March 23, 2010: Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, Pub.L. 111–148
      March 30, 2010: Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, including the Student Aid and Fiscal Responsibility Act, Pub.L. 111–152
      May 5, 2010: Caregivers and Veterans Omnibus Health Services Act of 2010, Pub.L. 111–163
      July 1, 2010: Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010, Pub.L. 111–195
      July 21, 2010: Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, Pub.L. 111–203
      July 29, 2010: Tribal Law and Order Act of 2010
      August 3, 2010: Fair Sentencing Act of 2010, Pub.L. 111–220
      August 10, 2010: Securing the Preservation of Our Enduring and Established Constitutional Heritage Act, Pub.L. 111–223
      September 27, 2010: Small Business Jobs and Credit Act of 2010, Pub.L. 111–240
      December 8, 2010: Claims Resolution Act of 2010, Pub.L. 111–291
      December 13, 2010: Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010, Pub.L. 111–296
      December 17, 2010: Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010, Pub.L. 111–312, H.R. 4853
      December 22, 2010: Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell Repeal Act of 2010, Pub.L. 111–321, H.R. 2965
      January 2, 2011: James Zadroga 9/11 Health and Compensation Act of 2010, Pub.L. 111–347, H.R. 847
      January 4, 2011: Shark Conservation Act, Pub.L. 111–348, H.R. 81
      January 4, 2011: Food Safety and Modernization Act, Pub.L. 111–353, H.R. 2751

      So that is not just Obamacare, but also Lilly Ledbetter, part of the stimulus, Dodd-Frank, SCHIP reauthorization, Plain Writing Act, Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell Repeal, Truth in Caller ID Act (which is basically worthless, I admit, having just declined to answer yet another spoofed call claiming to be from within my town).

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_acts_of_the_111th_United_States_Congress for more detailed info.

  3. I’m not sure how that will come through, but here’s a summary.

    RossDouthat tweets: Exciting opportunities await Paul Ryan in retirement!

    in response to John Boehner tweeting: I’m joining the board of #AcreageHoldings because my thinking on cannabis has evolved. I’m convinced de-scheduling the drug is needed so we can do research, help our veterans, and reverse the opioid epidemic ravaging our communities. @AcreageCannabis

    This would make a good movie.

    1. This might be good news either because a) Boehner has genuinely changed his mind about it for actual fact-related reasons or b) the money in cannabis is now so good that it’s advantageous for people like him to change his mind.

      Every time I read something like “”Democrats are going to kill in November’s election” I want to write JINX JINX JINX JINXXXXXX or whatever superstitious thing you say when someone makes a cavalierly optimistic prediction that just tempts fate not to make it true. Do you people not remember 2016?

      1. Yes. This is right on both counts. I keep meaning to try pot, but asking my neighbors’ kids where to buy some seems wrong, so I have not yet.

      2. I am also with AF, with assumptions of outcomes. I try to suppress my tendency towards superstition — losing the lucky hat does not affect how you’ll do on a test, speech, game, . . . . But, overconfidence can. And, I still experience cognitive dissonance over our current president. The other day, I actually had a flash move through my brain in which I thought it might have all been a bad dream, it seemed so impossible.

        I do believe that those who try to work with the current administration as it moves further and further into incompetence and hyperbole and xenophobia will be left indelibly stained. Ryan is fleeing the mud (and worse). I’m actually more surprised by Romney’s re-entry, but, probably, being a senator is more power with less responsibility than being the speaker.

      3. A trip to the west coast or Colorado for MH, perhaps? Then you can just walk into one of the stores, some of which are quite upscale.

      4. If I could get the NYT to publish my reflections on the incident, I’m willing to trip balls in a Denver hotel room and write it up. Otherwise, it seems kind of pricey to travel that far when I can just wait a few years for PA or Ohio to flip. They just opened a medical marijuana facility near my house, so I expect it will happen soon.

      5. I was just in Colorado, but only the airport. They don’t appear to sell anything at the airport, because I looked.

  4. Hmm, I haven’t walked through a New York City public square in the evening for a long time. Would I still be offered drugs? If not, is it because they are cleaned up, or because I am no longer young?

    1. I just asked my daughter, who spent 4 days during her recent spring break walking through Brooklyn and Manhattan, if she and her friends had been offered pot, and she said no. And she probably wasn’t lying because she really has no reason to.

      Btw, I also found out from my class Wednesday that not a single one smokes tobacco. One said he had given it up 2 years ago. I said why. He said, Well, I don’t want to get cancer. But many of them smoke pot (I distinguished between daily use and weekend use).

      MA legalized marijuana in 2016, and we’re working on retail stores apparently. As I am not a user, I haven’t been paying attention. http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/03/06/massachusetts-marijuana-regulations-approved

      1. There are still bars here that allow smoking (and vaping). You can tell when somebody from out of state walks in because of how surprised they look.

      2. Yep re vaping. I asked how many vaped and got a high response. Then I asked how many had their vaping thing with them, and several pulled them out of their bags.

      3. My HS kiddo, who is very antagonistic towards drug use, was surprised when I told her the vapes contain nicotine. She thought they might be some kind of aromatherapy (kind of, but she hates aromatherapy as well as nicotine, too, so she hadn’t thought about it).

        But, yes, they are vaping and apparently the message about cancer and nicotine hasn’t gotten through. I think there are teens who think it’s the smoking particulates rather than the nicotine itself that causes cancer. And, though they all seem to have gotten the message about drinking and driving, they seem to think being high is different, which worries me.

  5. This is the wrong thread but so what. I am a mom of a 21 yo on the spectrum and I wanted to address the guardianship issue.

    You are right to be stunned at the enormity of what guardianship means. Plus, it is almost impossible to rescind.

    What we have done instead is get Power of Attorney for financial and medical matters. This allows us control but leaves our son with his basic rights. For example, he can vote (in some states, being under guardianship does not allow voting).

    If the day comes when this arrangement is no longer sufficient — say he needs surgery but refuses to consent — we will take guardianship then.

    There is no deadline for guardianship, it does not have to be taken the moment your child turns 18. But if you don’t take it, you definitely need the POAs.

    Actually, you might want to think about POAs for your older son too. If he is hit by the proverbial bus, it will allow you to direct his medical care and take care of his finances while he recuperates. With him, the POAs will be a type of hopefully never-used insurance (at least until he marries, then this will be his spouse’svreapinsibility); with Ian, it will be a tool you use all the time.

    The only thing you must do when Ian turns 18 is have him register with Sective Service. In the unlikely event the draft is ever reinstated, they will sort out who is conscriptable then.

  6. Trump is now saying the U.S should rejoin TPP. Everything is in flux. There’s nothing consistent from week-to-week but crass self-interest, white resentment, and a desire make life harder for poor people. Paul Ryan is out because he only wanted the latter.

  7. Glad to be of help. It occurred to me you hadn’t mentioned your county board of DD so I googled NJ. Looks like services don’t begin until age 21.

    Here in Ohio, I’ve had a social worker from my county board holding my hand since I signed my kid up when he was six (and even then I thought I was remiss because it took me almost three years to call the intake number). So I have had support you haven’t.

    Things could be worse: we could both live in Massachusetts, where people with autism must also have ID (MR) to qualify for state services.

    But I digress. You are ahead of the game in having a trust and am attorney. It is not true however that Ian can have no money in his name. He can have an ABLE account which will allow him to amass $100K (!) without effecting his SSI eligibility.

    I will leave you to google the details. ABLE accounts are slightly different in each state but if your state doesn’t have an ABLE program, you can open an account in a state that has one that allows for out-of-state participation (not all do).

    When Ian starts getting SSI , you can charge him rent (SSI will tell you how much). After you deposit the check in your household account, you can write a check in the same amount to the ABLE account. It is legalized money laundering, essentially.

    Ian can also, and should, have a small checking/debit card account. He needs to practice basic financial management skills such as using an ATM, tracking how much money is in his account using his cell, not spending more money than he has (a hard won skill for my son), and so forth. This is a pocket money account. It will have no where near the SSI $2,000 cap on resources.

    One day, Ian will have at least a part-time job. SSI wants him to work. He is allowed to earn something like $39,000/year without effecting his eligibility; his monthly SSI will be reduced in proportion but he will still come out ahead. If he has extra money at the end of the month, it goes in the ABLE account.

    All these financial and legal tasks aren’t any harder than anything else we middle-class people have to do when it comes to our family’s fiscal well-being (Should we refinance the mortgage? Choose this route to save for retirement or that one?). It is just more fraught because of the emotions stirred up.

    One last thought: have you looked at the Think College site? Don’t pay attention to the tag line about ID, there are lots of programs for kids like Ian.

    My kid refuses to leave home so he is taking classes at the community college. I am continually sorry he won’t go to a residential program where you live on campus and take a mix of social skills, living skills and academic classes, and get work experience.

    Self-sufficiency is not all or nothing. There are many degrees of self-sufficiency and no one can know where either of our sons will end up on that continuum. Like everyone else in their age bracket, they will soon have a brain growth spurt.

    Don’t get me wrong, they will always be autistic but they may learn a lot more about navigating the world than we can currently imagine, even if they are never completely independent.

    That’s all — good luck! You have my email, obviously. I’m going back to lurking now.

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