Election Predictions

It’s time to go on the record, people.

What’s going to happen on election day? There’s only a one point difference between Hill and the Donald. How realistic is a Trump presidency? What’s going to happen to all those disgruntled Trump voters, if he loses? Are we going to see major shifts in American political parties?

32 thoughts on “Election Predictions

      1. I third this. I don’t remember another time when I’ve ever genuinely felt that I could jinx things by making a prediction or even letting the thought of a prediction cross my mind.

  1. I’m sticking with my prediction that I made here back in 2015 that Clinton will be the next president. I don’t know what is going to happen to the Trump voters, but I suspect it will pull apart the Republican Party if it can’t be contained before the 2018 election. The closer Trump is to winning, the stronger the tendency for the Republican Party to break apart.

  2. And, I think that anyone who is not voting for HIllary is making a grave mistake, unless they really are OK with Trump being president. Relying on other people to elect Hillary, because you don’t like her and can’t stomach checking that box is a dangerous game, given the history of Trump support. A lesson from the primaries, for me, was that Trump has supporters that we don’t see (of course that’s true for me, a progressive liberal, but, I think it’s true for the Republicans, too).

  3. I’m hoping/leaning towards Hillary based partly on the fact that she will have the much better on the ground/get out the vote team. E-day is all about getting people to the polls. It’s grassroots, back to the basics political work. The policy/speech side is fun/fascinating (love the well-crafted speech making a case, even I disagree), but the election day work is the same as it’s always been. For all of the social media and technology, it’ll come down to which team is more effective in getting their voters out the door and down to the polling station to cast a vote.

    Living outside of the US I luckily have a bit of a filter listening to both sides. Political spectrum leaning aside, I understand why people would follow Trump but it’s harder to understand the disparaging of Clinton. For a little palate cleanser (BJ, I think you would like this), listen to her 1969 Wellesley commencement speech. The beginnings of a through line of policy to this day.

    https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/with-her/id1143509380?mt=2

  4. And as to what will happen with the Republican party or politics in general? What a mess…I’ve worked in politics in the past (fiscal & economic policy) plus in some elections and despite the cynicism, there are many politicians who are doing it for the right reasons. They really do want to make the world a better place. And that’s having been behind the scenes “seeing how the sausage is made”.

    It’s become such a reality show circus that the messaging and thoughtful discourse on both sides (Democrat & Republican) has been tainted. Just like election day/getting out the vote, once you are in power, making change happen boils down to relationships and compromise and the ability to make your case. The ability to find a middle ground. Trump is a win at all costs person rather than a win-win negotiator.

    I may not agree with the policies/view of people of someone who is right of centre but I certainly can respect that we are all working towards the same goal.

  5. On days when I feel like going out on a limb, I write that McMullin is going to take Utah, earning an interesting footnote and providing Jeopardy fodder for future generations. I’ve been Utah-curious since Russell flagged developments there, probably back in late spring.

    Anyway, it’s going to be Hillary, and it isn’t going to be close.

    I’ll go with Clinton 352, Trump 180, McMullin 6. Clinton pulls through in Ohio but not Iowa. Georgia and Texas are not competitive this cycle. (The crazy blow-out map is Clinton 418 Trump 120. That has TX, GA, IA, and fluke UT. I don’t think there are enough Hispanic votes yet in SC or MS to join with African-Americans to flip those states over to blue, even in a crazy blow-out year.)

  6. I’m not particularly worried, remembering that there is a lot of ruin in a nation (and knowing that either candidate will produce his or her fair share). My predictions are that Hillary will win by about 2 percentage points, that it’s not worth thinking about the electoral college unless the popular vote is within 1 percentage point, which it won’t be, that the Republicans will maintain a small majority (like 51-49) in the Senate and a larger one in the House, that the succeeding four years will produce continued gridlock (this isn’t contingent on the Senate prediction preceding), that the Republican party will definitely commit itself to opposing immigration amnesty and to mild protectionism, but will not otherwise change much, that Trump supporters will go back to work, because they have jobs, that the managers of the Republican party will make some changes to the primary system to prevent the rise of another populist celebrity insurgent, and that Hillary will be mediocre, one-term president, because she is old, wholly conventional in her thinking, uninspiring, unadventurous, and mildly corrupt.

    1. that the managers of the Republican party will make some changes to the primary system to prevent the rise of another populist celebrity insurgent

      Basically, that would be undoing the changes those same managers made after the 2012 primary in an attempt to limit the amount of intra-party fighting, plus copying the Democrats “superdelegates” (which they criticized as being undemocratic when it looked like Sanders might have a chance to win the unsuper-delegates). All executed by the people spent 2013 through 2015 working to create a Republican Party that was attractive to women and Hispanic voters and 2016 working to elect a man who brags about groping women and calls Mexican immigrants rapists.

      I guess I have my doubts about their ability to pull it off.

      1. I think the Republicans will have as much trouble abandoning ideas they formerly embraced as the Democrats have had over the years disposing of the special prosecutor and the War Powers Act.

      2. Well, yes. They sure got rid of the “no open racism” idea pretty easily. But, the issue with primaries isn’t solved by having Republicans abandon conservative ideals. Altering the rules of any electoral system to favor a certain type of candidate before you even know who the candidates are is very difficult and seems as likely to backfire after 2016 as it did after 2012.

  7. What I WANT to happen is very different from I FEAR will happen. I think Trump is going to do better than most of us think. There are Trump yard signs showing up in this highly educated, highly successful, and mostly socially liberal town that we live in. I haven’t seen one Hillary sign. That’s not good. His support is bigger than Joe Sixpack.

    Hillary hasn’t bothered campaigning much here; she has NJ locked up because of the cities. So, there may not be many yard signs because NJ hasn’t been in play this election. It may be because she gets a “meh” even from traditional Democrats.

    I think Hillary is going to win, but it’s going to be close. Like a stay-up-all-night-and-watch-cable-news-til-dawn election. While I think Donald will be willing to go into the sunset after the election, there are all sorts of groups that are going to try to tap into the movement and keep it going. Because $$, In fact, you’re going to see corporations trying to figure out how to make money from this newly formed group. Selling them toilet paper and cars (this sentence is more than guess work.)

    1. Clinton is really pulling out all the stops here. She even sent your state’s most beloved musician, Jon Bon Jovi, to play at a rally just down the street from my office. It seems to be working. Not only is she still up in the polls, but the last one shows McGinty having a big lead of Toomey (which is a first).

    2. Of course his support is larger than “Joe Sixpack” – Ivanka’s father is merely making explicit all of the implicit racist and sexist beliefs that are unfortunately widespread. There are many people oblivious to their own privilege who do not recognize the structural social & economic barriers that many, many others deal with every day.

      And I agree with you about corporations trying to make money out of his supporters post election – that’s one of the crazy things in this campaign, that Ivanka’s dad couldn’t care any less about any of them. And they don’t see it.

      1. Dude, my name is Wendy. “Together Wendy we can live with the sadness, I’ll love you with all the madness in my soul.” He sang that song for *me*.

  8. I don’t think it will be close. Hillary Clinton will outperform the polls due to her campaign having a proper ground game. Even though the race is tightening, she’s still ahead by a significant margin. Throughout the primaries, Trump usually performed up to the polling, but he never outperformed the polls. I expect it will be clear that Clinton won before the polls even close on the West coast. Republicans will keep the House narrowly, and the Senate very narrowly.

    Thereafter, several things will happen. Trump will whine, but by and large nobody will care. He will quickly fade from view. House Republicans will have a total fiasco trying to elect a speaker; probably takes several weeks. The Clinton administration will be hamstrung by an obstinate Congress, but since they can keep most Obama administration appointees on, they will seem to hit the ground running. Still, Democrats will be suffering from the ennui of defending their president out of duty instead of enthusiasm in record time.

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