The cover story in the New York Times magazine is about Bruce Bueno de Mosquito. He constructs mathematical models for predicting when the shit will hit the fan in international relations. I had a professor at Binghamton who was really into this stuff. I memorized models that predicted when WWIII would happen and what happened to world stability when the number of nations with nuclear weapons increased. I still remember the Parabula of Peace.
Game theory drove me to change my concentration in political science.
Apt. 11d 
I had a professor who thought BdM was over-hyped and only correct when the result was trivially obvious. I haven’t kept up on his latest refinements. I’m certainly prepared to believe BdM is twice as accurate as the CIA’s analysts and see nothing contradictory between this and my professor’s assessment.
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I wonder if your move away from game theory was predictable.
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There were probably multiple equilibria.
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