As he picked at a plate of leftovers at the kitchen counter, Steve looked up from his cellphone, where he was scrolling through news headlines. He said things are going to get bad again in one to three weeks, according to the experts. “Maybe it’s time to load up the pantry again.”
On my daily check-in phone with my folks, my mom and I reviewed the various ways we could do Thanksgiving this year. One plan is to celebrate next week, five weeks early. Another plan is to do it on the regular day, but just have dessert and coffee together around a propane heater in my sister’s backyard.
Ian’s out-of-district school has opened up enough, so he can now go five days a week from 7:45 to 12:45 – much better than other school districts nearby. But the big urban districts are falling like flies. I’m worried that his district will be next.
While running this morning with one of my special ed mom friends, she said that the state is still not providing therapy and ABA supports to little kids with autism.
I am done. This is terrible. I am beyond COVID Fatigue. Fatigue is just tired, and solved with a simple nap. I’m COVID-Pissed. I’m COVID-Fuming. I’m COVID-Livid.
Yes, we needed to wear masks and be careful. We still do. But I am sad for the people who have been totally screwed over by the shutdowns, and I am angry that our COVID response has not prioritized the neediest groups.
Every day, I drive past the sports field down the block. And, every day, there are soccer and baseball games going on, sometimes simultaneously. Seated in cheap $14 folding chairs, the parents cheer for Junior and gossip with each other. And nobody is wearing a mask. Why is a soccer game more important than giving a two-year kid an hour of ABA therapy?
COVID shutdowns are creating a massive wreckage to our society. Kids are not being educated. Business owners are losing shops and restaurants that took decades to build. Women are leaving the workforce. This is beyond a disaster.
What’s the answer? I’m not a herd-immunity person, but we could make other changes that consider priorities and equitable outcomes without mass carnage. For example, we could shutdown the damn soccer games, before shutting down the ABA therapy. We could shame folks for in-house, family parties, which are a bigger vector for spread than Kindergartens. We could target education campaigns in communities that are having the hardest time obeying basic mask and social gathering rules.
Apt. 11d 
It looks like Hometown U. has gotten through a bit of a COVID bump and new cases and active cases are down again. That’s good, because I was prepared for things to get worse and worse as we got closer to Thanksgiving. I still kind of want Hometown U. to shut down a week earlier, so the kids aren’t so fresh from campus and have time to get tested before they see any fragile older relatives.
US test capacity is reaching levels we’ve never had before:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
There are over one million COVID tests a day right now, so we do have that going for us.
I’d like to see heavy testing start in any venue where large numbers of people need to be together indoors. It could make a really big difference for fall outcomes.
LikeLike
“For example, we could shutdown the damn soccer games, before shutting down the ABA therapy. We could shame folks for in-house, family parties, which are a bigger vector for spread than Kindergartens. We could target education campaigns in communities that are having the hardest time obeying basic mask and social gathering rules.”
I do think we need to talk about how to do the things that are most important to us even if we aren’t going to meet goals of eradication, or “low virus”. In March, I thought eradication was possible and even later I thought we could meet low virus counts (in our phase definitions, that was 25 cases/100K over 14 days (i.e. 75/100K/14 days) really mean ABA could be available again? Only if shutting down the soccer brought our overall caseloads lower. Some of decisions seem to be made based on choices. We can’t force therapists or other service providers to work (though at some point we have to make decisions on how long we pay people who aren’t providing the services we pay them for, if people are still being paid). Our system is soliciting volunteers for offering outdoor education. I wonder how that will go?
And everyone says shaming doesn’t work (I’ve been an advocate in the past, but I don’t think it’s been a very good argument here at 11D).
LikeLike
bj said, “And everyone says shaming doesn’t work (I’ve been an advocate in the past, but I don’t think it’s been a very good argument here at 11D).”
Some issues:
–It doesn’t really work for a minority to shame a majority.
–“Karens” are very unpopular right now.
–As we’ve discussed, literally everybody has different intuitions about what is safe and not safe, or worth it and not worth it. For example, I bet the soccer families would point out that what they are doing is outdoors, that kids are low risk, that it’s good for the kids, and relatively low risk for everybody. Meanwhile, indoor therapy is arguably higher risk.
–My older WA relatives have made some decisions that I’m not thrilled about, but the longer the pandemic drags on, the clearer it becomes that it wouldn’t have been reasonable to expect them to go to the bunkers and stay there. This is especially true in the case of my grandma who is 95 and quite frail and my mom who is 70ish and has advanced cancer. There’s not necessarily a lot of “after the pandemic” waiting for either of them, so it doesn’t make sense to not try to live the best life they can right now. (I’m still not visiting for Thanksgiving, though.)
–How much shaming is possible under pandemic conditions? Also, we’re not living in Puritan New England and there are no scarlet Cs to hand out for bad behavior.
–A lot of people have been done with COVID for a while now. I have two good friends locally who were much more cautious than me in March/April but were much less cautious than me starting in May.
–7+ months in, while I wouldn’t say it out loud, my internal response to an attempted shaming would be, “Eff you, buddy.” I’m making the best decisions I can, attempting to maximize quality of life family while minimizing unnecessary risk, and I’m not interested in judgment from people who don’t know me, don’t care about me and my family, and/or don’t have the same responsibilities I do.
“In March, I thought eradication was possible”
Setting aside the issue of our long, porous southern border and the question of whether eradication was possible in the US by March, that simply wasn’t the messaging in March and April. The March/April messaging was “bend the curve,” stay home for 2 weeks-2 months, and keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed. We basically did that and are doing that (see how many US states have reproduction levels very close to 1), which is why a lot of people are annoyed by the goal posts being moved.
I agree with your points about how what is operating is driven by individual choices and who shows up to work or volunteer.
LikeLike
Some days, I wish I was the super hero Cyclops. That way, the evil glare I give to people hosting parties in their houses (and if you’re hosting a party INSIDE, I know you are not following ANY pandemic rules), not wearing masks, etc. would be far more productive than it is now. I am so ragey about that – I feel like I could burn shit down.
LikeLike
My relative in Nebraska had coworkers who went to the Sturgis rally, put up lots of pictures of themselves in bars there, came back to the office and refused to wear masks in the office. Legally, they could not be required to wear them.
LikeLike
Ian’s school district closed down for two days, because someone tested positive. I am beyond depressed. He’s depressed. We have had so much on our plates supplementing with educational and social activities for him for months. I can’t tell you how much money we pay to have people just talk to him, so we can have a break. I thought things were getting better, but we just took a step back. If things shutdown entirely again, we’re going to have serious mental health issues here.
At some point, if government cannot and will not provide services, then they must give us our money back, so we can pay others and myself to do their jobs.
LikeLike
Laura said, “If things shutdown entirely again, we’re going to have serious mental health issues here.”
I’ve told Laura this before, but my desocialized kid has gotten so unused to normal life stuff that they refused their yearly well medical visit and I just barely was able to coax them into the dentist’s for a cleaning a week or so ago. There’s a huge amount of social anxiety, which is going to be very difficult to deal with, given that this kid is balking at contact with medical professionals.
This kid’s refusal/reluctance to engage in contact with the outside world is not a completely new thing (they have had similar behaviors earlier with regard to unwanted social and extracurricular events), but it’s a lot worse than I’ve ever seen. Thank goodness the kid is able to go to class in-person–but it’s still pretty bad.
LikeLike
I’m so sorry for you both and all of us.
My children are still in in-person school as case counts rise around us. I was going to flip them to virtual in November but the school board removed that option because the switching was “disruptive” – I’m angry because I might have made other choices if I’d known the goalposts would move.
That said, the difference in my youngest in particular is so striking that I know for his mental health we did the right thing. But I feel like every single day we’re playing Russian roulette with my mother in law’s health (and frankly our own) so I am completely stressed out.
Pandemics suck.
LikeLike
Jenn said, “I’m so sorry for you both and all of us.”
Thank you!
“My children are still in in-person school as case counts rise around us. I was going to flip them to virtual in November but the school board removed that option because the switching was “disruptive” – I’m angry because I might have made other choices if I’d known the goalposts would move.”
Wow–that is not OK.
“That said, the difference in my youngest in particular is so striking that I know for his mental health we did the right thing.”
Our two other kids are in-person and are doing very well now. In fact, one of the kids is probably having their best school year ever, due to appropriate supports in school and catching up to their grade academically thanks to homeschooling reading and math through the summer. That kid was starting to act really weird during the school shutdown (non-stop non-reciprocal chatter about a video game and other similar behaviors), so it’s really nice to see those behaviors recede and to know that the kid has literally everything that they could possibly need right now.
LikeLike
So sorry for the closure. Hope it is short term.
LikeLike
This is interesting:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/italy-did-everything-right-to-stop-a-second-wave-of-the-coronavirus-so-what-went-wrong
“What’s particularly troubling about the return of COVID in Italy is that the country has done everything experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci have been advising. Masks in public places have been compulsory for months, social distancing is strongly enforced, night clubs have never reopened and sporting arenas are at less than a third capacity. Children who are back at school are regularly tested and strictly social distanced, and yet, the second wave seems completely unstoppable.”
“Italy’s health ministry released data this week showing that 80.3 percent of the new infections “occur at home” while only 4.2 percent come from recreational activities and schools.”
“On Wednesday, Italy logged 15,199 new infections–nearly three times as many as the worst day of the pandemic last March and a per capita rate that would be the equivalent of 90,000 new cases in a single day in the U.S., which has not yet been reached.”
They are testing a lot.
LikeLike
Based on the people I know who live in Italy (both north and south), housing is a lot smaller and more crowded than is typical here – at pretty much every income level (well, OK, perhaps not the super-rich). Housing is also highly multi-generational – it’s very, very common for 30 and even 40 year-olds + to be still living in their parents’ house – with grandparents living there too. These ‘young’ people have still been freely associating with friends/colleagues/workmates – and provide the vector for the spread of CV – even though they themselves may be asymptomatic (or have mild symptoms).
In that kind of housing/lifestyle situation (which we see here in lower economic groups – thanks to the insane house prices here in NZ) – it’s highly likely that the virus will spread through the whole household.
LikeLike
It seems like no one really has any idea how best to respond to or contain COVID. However, most internet commenters compensate for their lack of knowledge with high levels of sanctimony and vituperation directed at those who disagree with them (or whom they dislike for other reasons).
LikeLike
y81 said, “It seems like no one really has any idea how best to respond to or contain COVID.”
I’d amend that with “outside Asia and once it gets going.” There are quite a few examples of Asian countries that are doing really well and will probably continue to do well, but outside of Asia, the examples are pretty thin on the ground, and often turn out to be very temporary. Within the US, “hasn’t had a huge COVID wave yet,” has been a major risk factor.
It’s also looking like flipping between super strict lockdowns and YOLO (which a number of European countries have done) is not great compared to consistent, sustainable control.
There have definitely been a lot of premature victory laps.
(That’s Andrew Cuomo’s COVID book, available to everybody just in time for the second NE wave.)
LikeLike
We’ve just had 2 mini-outbreaks here in NZ – one in Auckland, one in Christchurch.
Fingers crossed that they don’t expand…..
Both seem to be associated with govt failure to manage borders effectively.
In both cases, the virus appears to have arrived with new crew-members being flown into to NZ to re-crew ships (one set for fishing boats, the other for maritime shipping).
In both cases, the crew were not quarantined (we have a mandatory quarantine/isolation for 14 days for everyone arriving from overseas) – because the companies had lobbied the govt to pass them directly through since they weren’t staying in NZ and would not be in contact with any Kiwis….
Major fail….
The fishing boat ones, coming from Russia to Christchurch, have had a massive outbreak of CV amongst themselves virtually on arrival (and are all now in full quarantine) – they’d been double-bunking in rooms – so the spread was even more widespread.
The merchant marine ones, coming from the Philippines to Auckland, managed to spread CV to a NZ marine engineer who needed to work on board (not sure why – but likely to be repairs, or certification, or maintenance, or something similar) – who has spread it to co-workers and family. This one is out in the community, and the govt is taking massive steps (full testing of all contacts, etc.) [The ship itself has left NZ waters, and is in quarantine off Australia with CV infection on board]
Going to be a massive re-think on the practice of flying in short-term workers – and NZ may be closed to them (e.g. they’ll have to fly them into another country and board the ship there)
No one in NZ is likely to be crying for them – these shipping companies refuse to employ NZ crew (as we are too expensive and expect reasonable living conditions). Many of these employees are pretty much slave labour from our perspective (though they are earning better wages than they would in their home countries).
it’s been particularly noteworthy, as the NZ govt have persistently refused permission to allow seasonal workers from the Pacific Islands (Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, etc) to come to NZ (as they do every year) – and much of our fruit and wine industry relies on them and their work. None of these Islands have had any Covid cases – and they would be totally ‘safe’ on arrival.
Many of us are wondering who the shipping/fishing companies have paid off……
LikeLike
Ann,
That is very interesting to me, as I was a Peace Corps Volunteer near Vladivostok in the 90s and taught kids who were planning to go to the Marine Academy, so I’m familiar with how much interaction the Russian Far East has with other Pacific countries. New Zealand came up a lot.
“The fishing boat ones, coming from Russia to Christchurch, have had a massive outbreak of CV amongst themselves virtually on arrival (and are all now in full quarantine) – they’d been double-bunking in rooms – so the spread was even more widespread.”
The Russian government has been claiming something like 2.6% positivity. There’s no way that’s true.
LikeLike
Oh, and the reason I gave all the background.
Persistent rumors that the outbreak in Auckland (about 20 minutes drive from where I live) is already ‘out of control’ and we are headed back into lockdown again.
It’s a holiday weekend here (Monday is a statutory holiday ‘Labour Day’) and Aucklanders have already spread far and wide across NZ. I’m sure you can join the dots yourself.
If that’s the case, Mr 13 will be delighted to be studying from home (though less delighted than last time, as he’ll be missing out on the fun end-of-year stuff at school – camp, prize-giving, welcome in for new boys, etc.), and outside of school (variety show production, end-of-year concerts, Christmas parade, etc.)
And my stress-levels will be going through the roof again as I manage him learning from home and try to work, and look after my 80+ mum (lives 5 minutes away) and all the other things that we multi-tasking-mums do.
I feel rather ‘Animal Farm’ over this. Covid lockdown affects everyone, but some are more affected than others.
LikeLike
My 10th grader was supposed to be doing a class trip to New Orleans in January.
I’m not holding my breath, but I hope they manage to reschedule that for later in the term, maybe post-vaccine? It’s such a fun trip for the kids to do together.
As I’ve mentioned, my college freshman was supposed to do her senior trip to Italy in March of this year. That didn’t happen. There was a little bit of discussion of a summer trip to Italy (which we said no to) or maybe a Christmas rescheduling (which our freshman thought sounded fantastic), but for obvious reasons, I haven’t heard anything about that for months. On the other hand, she did get nearly completely refunded, which I’m still surprised about.
LikeLike
I really do love hearing the front line perspective from New Zealand and Canada (and the occasional drop in from Germany).
SARS-COVID-2 has lived down to all the worst predictions of the pandemic experts. Airborne transmission, asymptomatic spread, a death rate 2-3x the flu, potential reinfection. More hopeful characteristics: a vaccine seems plausible (the roadblocks to vaccines to AIDS and Dengue don’t seem to have come up) and it isn’t killing our young people).
And it is new. But, it’s not true that we “know nothing” and can’t mitigate the spread. No, we don’t know enough to make it go away. It is a hard, hard problem. Risks and costs and outcomes have to be balanced.
LikeLike
Current thinking on spread, from a perspective from Science magazine: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6515/406
It’s written in sciency language, but understandable. Another significant factor in the evolving thinking is something they call “overdispersion”, which is the tendency for the virus to be spread widely by a few individuals who are especially good spreaders.
The article talks about how the thinking on spread might guide “targeted interventions.”, but doesn’t really parse them out.
The Economist had a good article about the Swedish model (which is not herd immunity, according to them): https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/10/10/the-real-lessons-from-swedens-approach-to-covid-19 (but, behind their paywall).
“The lesson from the new Swedish policy is not that it is libertarian, but that the government weighs up the trade-offs of each restriction. For instance, when someone tests positive, their entire household must go into quarantine, but schoolchildren are exempt—because, the government reckons, the gains from shutting them away are overwhelmed by the lasting harm to their education. Likewise, the quarantine lasts five to seven days, compared with two weeks elsewhere. The risk of spreading covid-19 in that second week is small and shrinking, but the harm to mental health of extended isolation is growing.
Sweden is a high-trust society, where people follow the rules. And yet its approach is based on the idea that, as covid-19 is here for a long time, asking too much of people will lower compliance and thus spread the disease. Low-trust societies may need a different balance between coercion and self-policing but they, too, need sustainable rules.”
“Sustainable rules” are my goal going forward.
LikeLike
The Economist wrote, “For instance, when someone tests positive, their entire household must go into quarantine, but schoolchildren are exempt—because, the government reckons, the gains from shutting them away are overwhelmed by the lasting harm to their education.”
OK, that’s too YOLO even for me. Keep kids home for two weeks–it won’t kill them.
If we used that logic in the US, there would be no school closures at all.
“Likewise, the quarantine lasts five to seven days, compared with two weeks elsewhere. The risk of spreading covid-19 in that second week is small and shrinking, but the harm to mental health of extended isolation is growing.”
I kind of buy that, although I’d be happier with a full week.
Here in the US, it’s also true that (aside from colleges) we’re not locking quarantined people up. So, regardless of the official length of quarantine, there’s no enforcement mechanism. 5-7 days of quarantine conscientiously observed might well be better than 2 weeks of badly kept quarantine.
“Sweden is a high-trust society, where people follow the rules. And yet its approach is based on the idea that, as covid-19 is here for a long time, asking too much of people will lower compliance and thus spread the disease. Low-trust societies may need a different balance between coercion and self-policing but they, too, need sustainable rules.”
I’m wondering if we have any examples of lower-trust societies with good COVID results.
bj says, ““Sustainable rules” are my goal going forward.”
Yes.
LikeLike
And, the Economist article said “One rejoinder is that, unlike Britain, France and Spain, Sweden has not seen a second wave.”, but, Sweden is showing a second wave now. But, that doesn’t mean their approach is a failure; success and failure is a comparative measure, combined with the goals of what we want and need.
Ashish Jha (Dean at Brown Public Health) seems hopeful about California’s approach (ramping up testing, target strategy based on county cases). California cases came down and aren’t ramping up (yet, always provisional). The goal is to watch the cases and respond quickly with targeted interventions where the outbreaks occur. As a comparison, Texas’s cases and hospitalizations and deaths are now higher than California’s.
LikeLike
bj said, “California cases came down and aren’t ramping up (yet, always provisional).”
A heck of a lot of stuff is closed in CA, and their state unemployment rate is 11%.
I don’t have information specifically about CA schools, but the West is very bad compared to other US regions with regard to availability of in-person instruction:
https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/10/15/in-person-learning-expands-student-absences-up-teachers.html
If you page down to the chart labeled “Which model most closely reflects what your district is implementing this fall?” the West has the least in-person instruction of any region. 43% of districts in the West are completely remote, which is twice as high as the South and about 3X as high as the Northeast and the Midwest. (I can’t find information this specific on CA in particular, but with CA being such a populous state, presumably CA tracks with “the West,” or vice versa.)
CA’s low caseload comes at a price.
LikeLike
Our schools just announced that they will remain remote until January 2021, so indeed, I am aware that the perception of the virus and the trade offs to suppress the virus are being prioritized differently in the West than in the South.
Texas (as an example) has 2.5X the total number of cases, 2X the rate of new cases, 2X the deaths (per capita). And, all those measures are worse in Texas than in California as well. Unemployment rates in September in WA was better than TX which is better than CA (7.8% v 8.3% v 11%).
I understand the costs of trading off in person learning for 1/2 the rate of deaths, if that’s what we are doing. We can’t be sure and my preference, like getting the A in the AP class would be to have our reduced rate of deaths and in person instruction, and I don’t know that we can’t. But, the Texas comparison doesn’t show us that we can. By a measure that matters (death) TX is paying a significant cost for its decisions on the virus (and not at the benefit of employment, at least right now).
LikeLike
Note that I don’t know or believe that there’s enough evidence that the decision in TX or elsewhere to open schools is the difference since there are lots of other differences in virus decisions between TX/CA/WA, too.
LikeLike
bj said, “so indeed, I am aware that the perception of the virus and the trade offs to suppress the virus are being prioritized differently in the West than in the South.”
It’s not just the South. If you look at the chart I linked to, the West has significantly fewer districts with at least some in-person instruction than the South, Midwest and Northeast.
LikeLike
The Midwest is suffering their worst outbreaks right now. The Northeast did not experience the 2nd wave (the west did) and moved further forward on in person instruction.
But, as I’ve said, I’m not taking a position on whether schools should be open for in person instruction in the West. My larger point is that the choices being made in Texas (which is more clearly a parallel for California) also have a cost. TX’s high caseload comes at a price, too..
LikeLike
I forget if we’ve talked about this much yet, but when we talk about the ETA for “the vaccine,” we’re talking about the vaccine formulated for adults:
The kid versions of the vaccines aren’t in the pipeline at this point.
As of Sept. 21, the NYT said, “But no trials have yet begun in the United States to determine whether these vaccines are safe and effective for children.”
If we are waiting for a vaccine to open schools, it’s unfortunately quite possible that a vaccine for children will not be ready for the beginning of the 2021-2022 school year.
“Whenever these trials do start, it could take upward of a year to get vaccines for Covid-19 ready for children.”
“These tests would likely start with older children, before researchers could shift down to kids between 3 and 8. And only after gathering early data from that trial would it be possible to start one for children under 3. Once all of the results from these trials came in, the F.D.A. would have to put them through an independent review before approving the vaccines for children.”
On the one hand, the delay is a defensible choice, due to the low COVID mortality rates among children. On the other hand, it accords very poorly with the wait-to-reopen-schools-until-there’s-a-vaccine strategy.
LikeLike
I think the goal would be for teachers to be vaccinated, and high risk adults.
LikeLike
bj said, “I think the goal would be for teachers to be vaccinated, and high risk adults.”
I wonder if people will be happy with that, though?
There are a lot of people who only want to open the schools “after the pandemic.”
LikeLike
Yes, and in my the world where I thought we would suppress the virus to the point that we had sufficient testing and ability to do test/trace/isolate, that might have been a possibility. Some smaller states in the NE might be able to continue on that path (and, maybe Alaska & Hawaii), though only by navigating through setbacks.
The rest of us are going to eventually have to set other goals.
I have heard teachers and nurses with concerns about being forced to take the vaccine in order to keep their jobs and I do think that will be a navigation.
LikeLike
bj said, “Yes, and in my the world where I thought we would suppress the virus to the point that we had sufficient testing and ability to do test/trace/isolate, that might have been a possibility. Some smaller states in the NE might be able to continue on that path (and, maybe Alaska & Hawaii), though only by navigating through setbacks.”
I was reading a Brit (Mike Bird/@Birdyword on twitter) talking about the British attempt to do test-and-trace. He wrote:
“Tracing in much of Asia is meant to identify clusters and break them before uncontrolled outbreaks, with coerced isolation if necessary. Tracers in the UK operate during uncontrolled outbreaks and until late Sept were empowered to text people and ask them to consider staying in.”
“You can’t design a system that looks nothing like the ones that work, in conditions nothing like the ones where it works, and then be surprised that it doesn’t work.”
That sounds uncomfortably familiar.
To be fair to us in the US, we do have test-trace-isolate…at some colleges. I monitor the situation at Hometown U. very closely and Hometown U. went through a nasty surge during the first week of class and flattened it out within three weeks. For some reason, a much smaller bump developed in early October, but they’ve just finished squishing it, which took about two weeks. Hometown U. now has fewer active COVID cases than it did before the students arrived on campus in August. Hometown U. positivity is currently a bit over 1%, while county positivity is now about 6%.
It’s a shame that the same methods aren’t being used outside of colleges, but I suppose that colleges have an unusual amount of leverage over students, if they choose to use it.
On a happier note, some good news and bad news:
https://www.wcvb.com/article/boston-area-sewage-study-tracks-spike-in-indicators-of-covid-19-infections/34461961
The bad news is that Boston sewage is reaching April COVID levels.
The good news is that Boston has been doing sewage monitoring all this time. This is the first time I’ve heard of a major US city doing wastewater surveillance for COVID.
LikeLike
Here’s a post-mortem on contact tracing in the West:
“Just as important, officials overlooked the impact of raging mistrust in government and a thicket of conspiracy theories about the virus’s spread. Fearful of plunging themselves or their friends into a painful period off work, infected patients have handed over a paltry number of contacts and often flouted self-isolation rules. Contact tracers are struggling to reach people who test positive, and being rebuffed once they do.”
“In Taiwan, an infected person names more than 15 contacts on average, and tracers often interview patients in person, trying to extract details about secret jobs or marital affairs. But the picture in Europe is far different, and the low level of cooperation has startled public health experts.”
“In Spain, where hospitals are struggling with a new rush of cases, contact tracers identify, on average, only three contacts for each known case. In France, the figure has fallen below three.
Yet even those numbers are higher than in the United States. In New York City, each infected person hands over an average of 1.1 other names.”
Oh, wow.
In the UK, “Of those alerted that they had been close to an infected person, only one in 10 said they had complied with orders to self-isolate.”
“People self-isolating and unable to work in England were eligible for just 13 pounds, or $16.70, per day, until the government increased the payments this past week.”
“With tests results lagging in many countries, contact tracers cannot get ahead of the virus. In Paris, people wait up to a week to get testing appointments and results. England recently recorded a backlog of nearly 200,000 untested lab samples, making it impossible to track the virus through newly reopened schools.”
“Western countries have been slow to introduce mobile contact tracing apps like those used in parts of Asia, which notify users who have spent time near an infected person. Even if only 15 percent of people download them, they can reduce infections by 8 percent and deaths by 6 percent, according to research by Prof. Fraser, the Oxford professor.”
LikeLike
Yes, what works in Asia will not work here. My wife and I host a Bible study group, which last year for some reason was more or less entirely Asian. Last spring we were discussing Asian testing and tracing practices. (We spend a lot of time on off-topic conversations.) The other group members were second generation Asian-Americans, but with enough relatives and contacts in the old country (China, Taiwan, or Korea) to know what is going on. As they described the intrusiveness of the government testing and monitoring, my wife and I stared at each other in horror, before finally saying, “We would never cooperate with the government in that kind of thing.” We didn’t add, but we could have, “And neither will any white person we know.” But the Asians in the group (i.e., everyone else but us) basically thought it was fine.
LikeLike
y81 said, “We didn’t add, but we could have, “And neither will any white person we know.””
And probably not a lot of non-Asian minorities, either. Anybody who has immigration issues or has contacts with people with immigration issues may not be very communicative.
I would cooperate, but in my case the answers are really easy: definitely the four other members of my household, possibly my BFF, and possibly a dental or medical office. But that’s it.
Note that mass marketing phone calls have destroyed American’s faith in official-sounding communications and willingness to accept phone calls from strangers.
I was feeling sniffly last week and did a COVID test downtown 8 days ago at a free surge testing location. They were supposed to notify by email. I don’t know if they did and I accidentally deleted it or if they didn’t get around to telling me. I finally logged into the portal this morning and got a negative. I hope that my experience was just a glitch, because the whole freaking point is to get results faster so people can make better decisions.
LikeLike
Yeah, the track and trace thing is pretty challenging in practice for Western democracies.
In NZ we have a Covid Tracer App. Released by the Govt, and loaded on mobile phones. You are *supposed* to scan in a QR code at every point of your journey outside the home.
It has privacy built in – the scanned codes for businesses/locations remain on your phone – under your control. It’s pretty much just a digital diary. I *believe* that the govt can, if there has been an outbreak at a specific location, broadcast a signal which causes your phone to check for the QR code, and, if found, give you a message to go get tested (I don’t think this has been used as yet…)
Nice theory. Practice, not so hot.
Problems include:
* It’s optional to use. Businesses must display a code, it’s up to individuals if they want to scan it.
* When introduced, it conflicted with other, commercial apps in use – which also used a QR code – too many apps, too complex, everyone confused.
* There’s zero benefit to the business to encourage use. If required to record names/addresses – as they did during lockdown – they had to do this separately – couldn’t use the official app for this.
* Doesn’t work on most older phones (pretty much only on phones newer than 4 years) – this excludes a surprising percentage of the population (especially older people, children (not really a significant risk group) and socially/economically disadvantaged (a major issue)
* Anti-government tracing nutters don’t believe the Govt can’t get their info (ignoring the fact that the phone companies can *already* trace them…..)
* Registering the Covid App *requires* a unique email address (God alone knows why) – which again excludes a raft of people — surely a phone number is sufficient…. [This has proved to be a big issue for retired people, who often share an email address]
* Grey and Black Market activities aren’t exactly panting to include traceability by the Covid App (this is apparently a surprise to the Govt – go figure!)
* People get bored with it – can’t be bothered scanning, don’t see a big advantage. Complacency.
Because: If I need to track my presence in various community locations – I can already do this. Anywhere I pay by credit or debit card, the location is listed in my bank statements; if I travel by bus (I don’t, but the Kiddo does) – the bus pass lists the exact stop of entry and exit – and the time.
I basically don’t go anywhere else (social, in person, contacts are minimal – though we are going to see Mary Poppins next week – excited!) – so it’s rare enough to stick in my memory, and be in my online calendar.
We had (and possibly still have) 2 other tracing options on the table.
1. Legislation to make mobile phone tracking data available to the Govt under notifiable disease control legislation (currently only available with a court order for investigating a serious crime). This is totally passive, has minimal operational cost – and would track a substantial percentage of the population (though not easy to link phone numbers for pay-as-you-go customers, with their names. But could still push a ‘get tested’ message through to them.) Wouldn’t track those without phones (or who leave them behind) – but it’s amazing just how many people go *everywhere* with their phone (including, in a recent court case, murderers in the process of disposing of the body….)
2. Covid card. Invented by a set of NZ developers – which automatically records the unique code of all other Covid cards you come into contact with (and with business/locations as well). The theory is that if Person A comes down with Covid, they strip off all the codes on Person A’s Covid card for the relevant period, run therm through the central database, and send ‘alert to get tested’ messages. This is passive (in that the user doesn’t need to do anything except carry the card), but does have significant start up costs (manufacturing and distributing the Covid cards.) Would be available to everyone. But higher risk that people would forget to carry the Covid card.
I don’t think that either of these are going to be implemented. Largely because of the privacy implications, and the lobbying by the anti-govt tracking and right to privacy segment of the population.
To be fair, we have had a run of privacy breaches – where data (sometimes quite sensitive data – like medical records, or court history) held by govt departments has been accidentally leaked.
They don’t have a good track record of competence in this area.
LikeLike
Ann said,
“You are *supposed* to scan in a QR code at every point of your journey outside the home.”
Yeah, no. That’s expecting way too much from the individual.
I’ve also heard at least one person get shirty about the need to give contact information in order to dine-in at a restaurant. (This was Southern California–I don’t know if they are collecting that info here in TX, but I doubt it.)
We already are being spied upon in a big way for non-COVID purposes. This spring, I started doing a lot more with google (because of my youngest’s google classrooms), and this summer I got a couple of emails from google, offering to show me their report on where I’d been over the past month or whatever, helpfully including photos of several of the establishments I’d visited. They were mapping my itinerary, too. It was the creepiest thing. I assume they’re still mapping me, but I probably turned off the reporting feature.
Ann wrote, “surely a phone number is sufficient.”
Yeah.
“To be fair, we have had a run of privacy breaches – where data (sometimes quite sensitive data – like medical records, or court history) held by govt departments has been accidentally leaked.
They don’t have a good track record of competence in this area.”
There have been a number of analogous episodes in the US. The biggest, most recent one was Trump’s tax info being leaked to the press (which was technically a crime). There’s also a lot of doxxing happening these days–there seems to be a large minority of people who do it as a hobby. So, yes, there have been enough abuses of personal information that people aren’t eager to give up what remains of their privacy.
Thanks for your NZ report. That was very interesting and informative, and it does seem like Western countries have pretty systemic problems with test-and-trace (let alone test-trace-isolate).
LikeLike
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-california-gavin-newsom-new-rules-gatherings-thanksgiving-1541402
Newsweek summarizes, “All gatherings must include no more than three households, including hosts and guests, and must be held outdoors, lasting for two hours of less.”
The statement says, “Attendees may go inside to use restrooms as long as the restrooms are frequently sanitized.” Wait–this is supposed to be a less than two hour event. How often is “frequently”?
“The new rules state those at a gathering “may remove their face coverings briefly to eat or drink as long as they stay at least 6 feet away from everyone outside their own household, and put their face covering back on as soon as they are done with the activity.””
“The latest guidelines add: “Face coverings can also be removed to meet urgent medical needs (for example, to use an asthma inhaler, take medication, or if feeling light-headed).””
“Singing, chanting and shouting are “strongly discouraged” because they “pose a very high risk of COVID-19 transmission,” the statement noted.”
Fortunately, just at well-distanced backyard Thanksgiving gatherings. It’s not risky at big demonstrations with people packed together tightly.
“As much as possible, all food and drink should be served in disposable containers, while self-serve communal containers and other shared items should not be used at the gathering.”
Not clear on the concept of “Thanksgiving.”
“A place for washing hands or hand sanitizer must be available for use at the gathering and all attendees should wash their hands or use hand sanitizer frequently, the statement noted.”
There is reason to be concerned about Thanksgiving, but given that there’s a snowflake’s chance in hell of successfully policing every single Thanksgiving gathering in a state with nearly 40 million people, I feel like there should be a lot more “asking nicely” in the CA rules.
LikeLike
It occurs to me that “open the bathroom window and keep it open” would be way better advice than to tell people to “frequently sanitize” the bathroom for a supposedly 2-hour event.
LikeLike
Just saw this on the Bird App, via Princeton research.
I am not looking forward to the pressure I am going to get from my family in NY to have Thanksgiving with them.
LikeLike
As somebody was pointing out in the thread, the Princeton piece doesn’t explain risk according to age of children. The stuff I’ve seen elsewhere says that the degree of risk of a child spreading COVID depends a lot on their age. Some of that may be due to the nature of the group settings for children of different ages, though, rather than the age of the kids themselves.
There have been findings that daycare workers are not higher risk for COVID than the general population. Here’s an October piece:
https://www.today.com/health/daycare-covid-19-study-finds-no-link-between-child-care-t194313
“A large-scale study conducted by Yale University found that child care is not associated with the spread of the coronavirus. The study, published in Pediatrics, the peer-reviewed journal of the American Academy of Pediatrics, found that child care programs that stayed open throughout the pandemic did not contribute to the spread of the virus to providers if those child care programs were in areas with low COVID-19 spread and took multiple safety measures, including disinfecting surfaces, hand washing, screening for symptoms, social distancing, masking and limiting group sizes.”
That’s a lot of caveats, but then they go on to say this:
“The study surveyed 57,000 child care providers across all 50 states, Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico, and compared self-reported COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations among workers whose programs stayed open against those whose programs had closed. No difference in COVID-19 outcomes was observed between the two groups, leading researchers to conclude that child care providers did not face any “heightened risk” from their workplaces so long as core health and safety practices were followed.”
Wendy wrote, “I am not looking forward to the pressure I am going to get from my family in NY to have Thanksgiving with them.”
An indoor multi-household Thanksgiving is insanely high-risk in cold weather states.
It’s easy for me to not do it, because we only fly to WA sporadically for Thanksgiving. I’m not flying anywhere before May unless somebody dies.
LikeLike
Also, if I’m reading the Princeton piece correctly, they seem to be focused on kids bringing COVID into households and then efficiently spreading COVID at home, as opposed to kids spreading COVID in other settings.
LikeLike
Great article — the original, in Science https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/29/science.abd7672
I don’t love the press release.
I don’t understand the data well enough yet, but they do break down children’s age into narrower bins in the paper.
LikeLike
Also this: https://twitter.com/BioTurboNick/status/1320060337178267656
Massachusetts, Greater Boston area. Not sure if that includes my area of SE Mass.
A student told me Thursday that he had gone down to Atlanta the previous weekend and now he just tested positive for COVID. He’s isolating now, but I’m on the “it’s going to get really bad” train.
LikeLike
This time, if it does get bad, I’ll have 15 pounds of flour, a case of beer, seven bottles of wine, one box of wine, one bottle of whiskey, ten cans of beans, and a whole shelf full of pasta. I feel like a Mormon.
Still going canvasing for Biden both days next weekend. I just didn’t want to have to deal with the shopping then.
LikeLike
Wendy said, “A student told me Thursday that he had gone down to Atlanta the previous weekend and now he just tested positive for COVID.”
Time to dust off the “STAY HOME” slogan from this spring.
LikeLike
This is my remote-only class, so I’m not in a room with him.
LikeLike
Wendy said, “This is my remote-only class, so I’m not in a room with him.”
That’s good.
LikeLike
Gah, my nephew in 5th grade who lives in Rockland County, NY has been directly exposed. Quarantine for Halloween. 😦 Also, my BIL is a cancer survivor, so now I’m worried about him too.
And speaking of 5th grade, 5th graders in my local district are on 2 weeks of remote instruction due to a COVID case. Not sure if it was staff or student. The town FB group hasn’t been forthcoming with the gossip.
Meanwhile, at our university, they are apparently considering allowing up to 30 students in a classroom (as opposed to up to 23; my current in-person classroom has 23 occupancy under COVID distancing rules, and I have 18 students in that class).
LikeLike
Yes, Rockland is getting hit hard, especially in areas with a big Hasidic community. Hope your family is okay!!
LikeLike