The Thinning of the Middle Class

~ Laura

istock_000006025149xsmall_wide-beb6fac6237ff06a64594d3a1fe6b9d54593eb61-s3-c85Tyler Cowen is on NPR talking about his new book, Average Is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation

Cowen believes the wealthy will become more numerous, and even more powerful. The elderly will hold on to their benefits … the young, not so much. Millions of people who might have expected a middle class existence may have to aspire to something else.

“Imagine a very large bohemian class of the sort that say, lives in parts of Brooklyn,” Cowen explains. “… It will be culturally upper or upper-middle class, but there will be the income of lower-middle class. They may have lives that are quite happy and rewarding, but they may not have a lot of savings. There will be a certain fragility to this existence.”

Average is over. Two anecdotes.

The School District shared the results of the latest survey of middle school parents in town. 28 percent of parents responded yes to the statement, “I supplement my child’s education with professional tutoring in core subjects such as math or reading.” The true number is probably higher, since not every parent would admit to paying for tutoring.

Kids are being honed for high school sports long before they enter high school.

 

Published by Laura

16 thoughts on “The Thinning of the Middle Class”

  2. “A fair number of students experience career-ending injuries in high school.”

    I just got back from the orthopedist with my daughter. She is never going to have a career in dance, but she would like to continue to dance for a few more years at least, but she tore her hamstring last spring, and now last night she sprained her ankle. She’s been dancing 8-9 years and has never been injured before, and now it doesn’t seem to stop. 😦

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  3. My son told me he wanted to start collecting emergency room bracelets after his 4th (or it might be more, my mind is blocking things out) visit to urgent care last year.

    (mind you one was for having put something in his ear and none of the others were serious, but, still).

    On the other hand, my daughter was on the way to becoming sedentary and overweight before discovering organized basketball, so I am still grateful to organized sports.

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  4. Who is this Tyler Cowen person?

    Kids are totally being honed for high school sports before they enter high school. Someone asked me the other day (a mom who is 6 feet tall) whether I thought her daughter could start playing basketball in HS (’cause she’s not really interested now, and isn’t yet 6 feet tall). My answer? It wouldn’t be easy, ’cause the kids who are playing high school ball have been playing since the 4th grade (being 6 feet tall will help, but it still wouldn’t be easy).

    One of the local gyms posted recently saying that 10/11 kids on their first “select” 4th grade! (9 year olds!) girls! team are now committed to playing for a college (accompanied by a post of girl who will be playing for Yale).

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      1. You mean, is the girl who has committed to Yale older than 9? 🙂 yes, yes, she is a HS senior. Though there are now 8th graders who have “informally commited” to basketball and football (boys) I do not think that any of the Ivy’s are making verbal commitments at that age. They just keep an “eye” on the student.

        The report was on the 4th grade team from 2005.

        (PS I do not know this information for any practical reason. It’s more like observing the natives of the culture I watch from the periphery. It’s better than having gun enthusiasts in my Facebook feed)

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  5. I think athletes who can compete at an elite level can pick up sports rather late and still do very well. There are very few kids at that level though and most of the kids who are being trained from a young age are aiming for the level below that which is probably playing sports in college. It seems easier to pick up individual sports (swimming, running, tennis) at a later age than team sports.

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    1. I think that depends on what we mean by “late” I think early training is one of the symptoms of this winner take all culture — how much can you shift outcomes through concerted training? There are sports where there are late entrant — it used to be that tall girls who had played basketball but weren’t good enough could sometimes shift to crew. Now the high profile swim and crew centers are recruiting from the soccer and basketball fields early.

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  6. The message of “Average Is Over” seems to be, roughly, “most people will be screwed. Don’t be one of them.” This is terrifying.

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    2. Something like that. Maybe I count as one of Cowen’s “old people” now. The message I got from the past few years is don’t kill yourself working because most people will be screwed regardless of what they do.

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  8. I looked at the NPR page. On that page, Tyler Cowen emphasizes the importance of computer skills (in his opinion.) It’s interesting that intro to computer science courses are now enormously popular at Stanford and Harvard:

    http://www.stanforddaily.com/2012/10/04/cs106a-enrollment-reaches-record-high/
    http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2013/9/12/course-enrollment-numbers-CS50/

    As far as I can tell, Harvard and Stanford undergraduates aren’t required to take computer science courses. The millenials (?) think it’s a good thing to know something about computers. They agree with Cowen.

    I wish such skills could be included in the standard high school curriculum.

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  9. IMO average is over in some areas – basically areas that have “matured” in the marketing sense. In sports, it’s less common to see overt amateurs. But other areas are becoming deprofessionalized. Every time I read a Kindle book that no one bothered to proofread I am reminded of this. And look at home health care – used to be delivered by a nurse, these days lots of untrained folks do it. Movie making – being done by everyone with a MacBook. Music recording, done at home (at lower fidelity). Some kinds of art and music instruction. The rise of home schooling. So I think it depends.

    Depressingly, middle class parenting appears to be getting to the point where only professionals can do it. The standards are incredibly high, and you almost have to either stay home or work in education to be able to absorb the schedule.

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  10. That’s the spirit, Tyler. The current situation is inevitable; veritably, ordained by God Himself (not Herself).

    What message could be more welcome to those at the top? And as long as you keep them happy they’ll take care of you.

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