The Future of the Republican Party

~ Laura

Last November, I spent most of election night watching coverage on FOX. It was the best damn TV in ages. When the other news channels had declared Obama the victor, Carl Rove and others refused to admit defeat. Before the election, they forgot vigorously against the number crunchers, who predicts that outcome. In the days after the election, conservative pundits admitted that they trusted the wrong number crunchers and wondered how their party would recast itself to win national elections. Their honesty was remarkable. 

With the public opinion polling showing HUGE support for gay marriage, conservative pundits are continuing their soul searching. Even Rush Limbaugh is questioning whether or not it makes political sense to continue their hardline opposition to same sex marriage.

From TPM:

Limbaugh added that the political ramifications of same-sex marriage are still unknown, especially for the Republican Party: "I mean, the Republican Party, for example, could be looking at its ultimate demise here, depending on how it deals with this. Because they do have multiple millions of voters who are evangelical Christians who on religious grounds alone don't support homosexual marriage and are not going to support a political party that does. So then the Republicans in that circumstance would be faced, if you were to lose multiple millions of voters over this, they are going to have to replace them somewhere. How do they do it? Do they try to siphon off most of the gay vote that's going to the Democrats?" 

Published by Laura

5 thoughts on “The Future of the Republican Party”

  1. Well, I’ll make the brave prediction that they have a future. I think the media makes too much of temporary setbacks (including 2004 and 2010 for the Democrats). The Democrats are contending with long-term effects of power loss, too, with many governorships and state houses in Republican hands, the stability of the Republican control of the House, the effect of partisan district drawing, . . . .

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  2. Kevin Drum had a good column about this a week or two back, about the strange triumphalism of the Democrats (including Laura, I guess), given that the Republicans control the House of Representatives, are expected by most prognosticators to gain seats in the Senate next election, and control the majority of governorships and state legislatures.
    I doubt that one issue can be very important to a party’s overall fortunes. Most polls show that Obamacare and affirmative action are both pretty unpopular, but the Democrats aren’t drying up and blowing away.

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  4. I think the deeper question is whether the Republicans will shift to be more accommodating of modern America. There are some trends (marriage equality, acceptance of gays is an example, not the only one) that are trending in one direction. I do not think that we are going to shift back to being less tolerant. I think it’s not one issue, but what it generally represents, that’s the problem.
    I think there are Democratic parallels, on unions, potentially, and yes, affirmative action, potentially on abortion. Except for the last, though, these are matters of policy, not ideology and democratic positions on them do and have evolved. The question, for the Republican party is that do and will they also evolve? Have the Republicans changed their positions on any significant issues?

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  5. Republicans cannot rely, in the long run, on schemes to suppress and manipulate the vote against the tide of public opinion

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