From Will Wilkinson:
Can they help it? Well, there simply aren't enough older white, nationalist, conservative Christians to make up a durable electoral majority. The GOP must become younger and/or browner or reconcile itself to perpetual loserdom. Yet a slightly more socially moderate, slightly more multicultural Republican Party is by no means impossible, and could even conceivably dominate. I'm confident the GOP will get there sooner or later. Sooner if a leader emerges with the political chops needed to persuade older, white, religious conservatives that in their big, Christian, American hearts they have all along affirmed exactly what the party needs to win. Or…they can do it one funeral at time.
Apt. 11d 
I tend to think this will end with further devolution of big decisions into the hands of the states. If you can retain your white majority culture by staying in, say, Utah, or Oklahoma, or Idaho, or Arkansas … well then that’s where you’ll stay. Problem solved (until your kids move away).
This all just reinforces my personal belief that we’re not really one country any more; we don’t have one shared culture. At some point this will need to be reflected in our political structure.
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AT THE national level, the result of yesterday’s election could hardly be less interesting. Barack Obama remains president. The size of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives remains for all practical purposes unchanged. The Democrats did extend their majority in the Senate by two seats, but that still falls short of the number needed to overcome a GOP filibuster. If Americans truly desired an end to gridlock, you wouldn’t know it from last Tuesday’s results.
In Pennsylvania, Obama beat Romney 2.90M votes to 2.61M votes.
If you add up all of the Congressional votes from 18 Congressional races, Democrats got 2.72M votes and Republicans got 2.65M votes.
Due to extreme gerrymandering, Republicans won 13 out of 18 Congressional Districts in Pennsylvania,and Democrats won only 5. That is why there was not a vote to “end gridlock.”
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“Due to extreme gerrymandering, Republicans won 13 out of 18 Congressional Districts in Pennsylvania,and Democrats won only 5. That is why there was not a vote to “end gridlock.”
Yes, and we need to be talking about the real effects of how congressional districts are being drawn. It’s a quandary, because I can see that the parties have an interest in drawing incumbent friendly borders and have the ability to draw more politically predictable boundaries (yes, polling, demographic analysis, marketing analysis have something to do with it). The sop to the parties out of power has been to draw stable boundaries for the other party, too. The eastern states are navigating the problem w/ the loss of representation, which exacerbates the problem in one direction. The western states are gaining seats, but when the boundaries are drawn, the two parties at the table advocate for drawing 1 Dem and 1 Rep district over drawing any that have balance. And, they have the data to do it. I hope the numbers people keep talking about the issue.
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Both Liberals and Conservatives are sounding pretty dubious of the chance of Latino voters ever voting Republican.
Matt Yglesias writes on Slate:
“The best evidence available on Hispanic public opinion, a big election eve poll from Latino Decisions and ImpreMedia, makes it clear that this is just a fairly liberal voting bloc. Just 12 percent of Latinos support a cuts-only approach to deficit reduction, and only 25 percent want to repeal Obamacare. Only 31 percent of Hispanics say they’d be more likely to vote for a Republican who supports the DREAM Act.
Meanwhile, Heather MacDonald writes on the National Review’s Corner:
“It is not immigration policy that creates the strong bond between Hispanics and the Democratic party, but the core Democratic principles of a more generous safety net, strong government intervention in the economy, and progressive taxation.”
My knee jerk view is that if both the Democratic and Republican establishment agree, it is probably wrong. I think it would probably be pretty easy to get the Latino vote — it’s probably pretty close to the way to get the Jewish vote.
And by “easy,” I mean both not requiring big changes, but also pretty much impossible. There is one step:
Truly believe that the following statement — “being a while male Christian in America today is a huge disadvantage” — is a completely ridiculous statement. If they can do that, they will no longer be the party of Christian white men. I just don’t think they can.
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I think it would probably be pretty easy to get the Latino vote — it’s probably pretty close to the way to get the Jewish vote.
There was a concerted effort to get the Jewish vote in my neighborhood. It did not work at all as far as I can see from the vote totals. For reasons of campaign finance law, it was anti-Obama and not pro-Romney. They had an office and stood outside polling places and generally took up much of the life of at least one guy for many weeks. I don’t know how much help he had.
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There was a concerted effort to get the Jewish vote in my neighborhood. It did not work at all as far as I can see from the vote totals.
Yeah, except that you aren’t looking at the 2008 vote totals to compare. In 2008, Jews were the most pro-Democrat of any group other than self-identified “Democrats”, “Liberals,” and “African Americans.” They voted Democrat more than “Atheists” and “Latinos.”
In 2012, the percent of Jews voting for Republicans increased from about 22% to about 30%, which is actually a pretty big jump, percentage-wise.
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I was looking at my neighborhood. My district (i.e. the smallest reported area) was 1% higher for Obama than 2008. The surrounding ones seem to be up 2, down 1, up 4, down 3, etc. I didn’t check them all, but it doesn’t look like any shift.
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Of course, the people aren’t all Jewish. Maybe “Obama…Oy Vey!!” came off as boosting Obama to the gentile viewers.
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Krauthammer’s column today was a case study in not getting it (and, though Krauthammer is old, white and straight as far as I know, he’s not Christian and he’s disabled, so it goes to show that you can only carry stereotypes so far). He wrote that Republicans should plan on getting back the Hispanic vote by holding their noses and voting in favor of amnesty. So, grudgingly buying them off.
The problem is that Republicans still give off the vibes of us and them (and, occasionally, they will negotiate with us people). But, what’s wanted is an equal seat at the “us” table. We’re looking towards a world in which its a disappointment when only 20 women are elected to the Senate (rather than a cause for celebration). The Democrats offer that, or at least try. The Republicans don’t.
And, a case in point is that Asian-Americans have been flipped since Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton won 30% of the AsAm vote. Obama won 75%! That’s higher than the Hispanic vote, with a population, that is, on average, affluent, educated, hard-working, and not Romney’s “47%”. AsAm’s aren’t surging demographically, but they are a bell weather.
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Speaking of change, one good thing I’ve noticed about the election aftermath is that people are starting to sound more reasonable on extremist positions. Not only is Sean Hannity flip-fl^H^H^H evolving on immigration, but my wingnut HS classmate/FB friend is actually starting to think somewhat logically about the fiscal cliff and the deficit. He’s not really changing his views, but he’s approaching it in a less hysterical, more open to listening kind of way. And man, if we can start to get *that* kind of dialogue going, we might make some headway in this crazy country.
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The problem is that Republicans still give off the vibes of us and them (and, occasionally, they will negotiate with us people). But, what’s wanted is an equal seat at the “us” table.
I think that’s the big difference between how Democrats think about White Working Class men (“We think our policies are better for them. How can we package it in a way that will convince them to vote in their own self interest?”) versus how Republicans think about Hispanic voters. (“If we give them an immigration bill, will they vote for us and leave us alone so we can do the other stuff we want?”)
Maybe I am over-optimistic that when Republicans try to frame their message to appeal to, say, working class single mothers (“Yes, we are going to take away your benefits, but that will increase you dignity and make you better off because, um . . . ) they will come to realize that there is actually no reason for these groups of people to vote for them, and maybe they will come up with policies that will actually help.
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bj
The xenophobic stuff isn’t helping with Asians. Not just immigration policy, but the “Obama is a foreign Muslim who shouldn’t be president” attitude, based solely on name and skin color. In addition, militant Christianity is a big turn off for non-Christian Asians. Secondly, although Republicans pretend to be the party of bootstraps, Obama is the exemplar of a meritocratic success, the child of an immigrant with a funny name and non-wealthy but hardworking parents who achieved the ultimate dream, Harvard Law and then president. By contrast, Romney represents family money and nepotism, something Asian-Americans have a hard time identifying with, even if they’re successful. Relatedly, the “I did it all myself” narrative isn’t really one that resonates with Confucian values. Most successful Asians were at one point poor, and they remember the networks of family, friends, and occasionally government assistance who helped them out. Having made it out of poverty, the idea of knocking the ladder down for those behind is distasteful. Not to mention, Asians are wealthier on average than other racial groups, but few Asians are wealthy enough that concerns about dividend taxes or taxes on the top 1% really affect them.
Finally, the anti-Chinese scare mongering cost lots of Chinese-American votes, though this was over-determined by most of the other reasons above.
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