So, the new polls show that McCain actually has a big lead over Obama now among white, female voters. Palin connected with them. And I’m too big of a person to say I told ‘ya so.
I am not sure how deep that connection was. It may not stick once Palin really starts to open her mouth. Even if she manages to dodge real interviews, those supporters may lose that lovin’ feeling by November, which is still a million miles away by election standards.
Brooks writes that the lesson learned by this Palin moment is that "Weirdness Wins." The Obama camp needs to pull a card out of its sleeve and avoid policy debates. It also needs to lay off the snobbery. "Many liberals claim to love working-class families, but the moment they glimpse a hunter with an uneven college record, they hop on chairs and call for disinfectant. Obama needs to attack Bill Maher for calling her a stewardess and the rest of the coastal condescenders."
Some people want Hillary to attack Palin, but I think that will backfire. The Palin supporters aren’t Hillary supporters gone AWOL on the Democrats. They are lukewarm supporters of abortion rights, church going, family oriented, mildly interested in politics women. They aren’t big fans of Hillary.
It Biden goes after her, we are risking a "little missy" moment, when he slips into condescension and latent sexism.
Really the best advice is to completely ignore her. The supposed-left wing media is loving her at the moment and giving the McCain camp a huge bump. (How the hell can Palin claim that the media is liberally bias?) So, just don’t give them anything more to talk about. Change the subject.
I was talking to a mom at the bus stop this morning. She had watched Palin’s and Obama’s speeches. She was highly interested in Palin. She thought that Obama’s family was a little too perfect and that Michelle was too polished. I’m sure that Obama’s camp is going to have to counter the Red Meat Sarah with the folksy Obamas. I’m really afraid, but I think we are in for three months of bowling and whiskey shots.
The Republicans have waged a major cultural war battle, and it seems to be working. This election is taking a sharp detour from discussions about the War in Iraq and health insurance to small town values and elitism. Idealistic me says that Democrats should not play the culture war dance. Realistic me says it’s Miller Time.
Apt. 11d 
Is there no hope that we’d get away from this politics of identity stuff and actually focus on issues? I cringe when I hear the New York Times mention (multiple times) that Palin was a beauty contest winner. That really does not apply here, and is sexist. But far fewer people are talking about her support for drilling, which even rich oil guys say won’t work. She denies global warming, for crissakes. If she can’t see that all around her in Alaska, what more proof does she need? This is a person who believes what she wants to believe, not reality. A useful stress management approach, yes, but perhaps not something we really want in a leader. You don’t need identity politics to attack that.
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You know, when I “disagreed” with you before, I didn’t disagree that white women *would* feel this way. I said that when they do — when they say “Michelle is too polished”, they’re really just saying “Sarah looks more like me.” I know this is a problem for Obama, but it’s not one that those of us who don’t look like you can do anything about. No amount of looking “folksy” will work, and, certainly, having a pregnant teen daughter certainly wouldn’t, since it would be interpreted completely differently.
So, I’m counting on those of us (some of whom are newly realizing that there is no place in the Republican party for us, regardless of our values — 2nd generation immigrants, for example). I think that’s the same as doubling down on weirdness. It means the Obamas not pretending to be something that they’re not, playing up the story of the pluralistic, everyone belongs America that they represent.
It was always going to be a narrow coalition, and it depends critically on white girls like you and jen and jody and wendy, who are willing to see the issues, or even to look past the brown skin to what you share with Michelle or Obama. ’cause as you pointed out before, even if we get 100% of the 30% that’s not enough.
Lisa (sorry, can’t remember the initials) said in the last post that students at her school were going to be disillusioned if Obama didn’t win. I’m afraid the same is true for me — I’m laying a lot of hope in the America Obama represents, the one where those of us who don’t look like Sarah Palin, or her neighbors in Wasilla are also real Americans.
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The idea that people are leaning toward McCain/Palin just because Palin is a white female bothers me a lot. I think it would be lovely to see a woman in the White House, but I don’t want it to be Palin. Her policies and beliefs are far too conservative for me.
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I agree that there are women that would vote for her because of the “idea” of her. It’s totally what McCain’s camp was talking about- perception, not issues.
However, those women who “know” her personally aren’t sure they are voting for her. I’ve seen reports that her MIL, and video of her 4 best friends all talking about how they were unsure if they were going to vote for her. None of this seemed to be a personal slam, they like/love her. They don’t agree with her politically.
I’m hoping as the weeks go on, more women will take the time to really “know” her and her stand on the issues, rather than just voting for the idea of her.
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“The Palin supporters aren’t Hillary supporters gone AWOL on the Democrats. They are lukewarm supporters of abortion rights, church going, family oriented, mildly interested in politics women. They aren’t big fans of Hillary.”
Laura, you don’t get conservative women. You assume Palin supporters are “mildly interested in politics” (and imply they would be in the other camp if they were really paying attention). I’d love for you to drop in on me at my office or church, or at the playgroup I attend which are lit up with women in firey support of Palin. Women who are church (or synagogue)-going and family-oriented, yes. But who also have a gun or two in the house, have fiercely conservative or libertarian economic views, believe strongly in personal responsibility, are global warming skeptics, and, most importantly, are incredibly pro-life. Most have themselves decided to continue a surprise inconvenient or late-in-life pregnancy, to keep a baby with disabilities, or to adopt or foster parent, and stopping or restricting abortion is extremely important. They avidly read blogs and share articles and talk about politics. And they are overjoyed to have a strong, conservative, gut-toting, pro-life woman on the ticket.
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Believe me, Mrs. Ewer, I know conservative women really well. Got a family of ’em. They are everything you describe without the gun part. And I’m not sure about the economic libertarian part. A lot of very Catholic women are on the left on those issues. But still the abortion issue alone means that they would have voted with McCain no matter what.
I was thinking about the women who have gotten interested in politics and are switching alliances in these public opinion polls now that Palin is on the ticket. Real conservative women were never interested in Obama.
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I think that Laura is describing a different category of woman than Mrs. Ewer: “Women who are church (or synagogue)-going and family-oriented, yes. But who also have a gun or two in the house, have fiercely conservative or libertarian economic views, believe strongly in personal responsibility, are global warming skeptics, and, most importantly, are incredibly pro-life”
though, I do wonder: do you actually know a synagogue-going woman who has a gun or two in her house? or is that a theoretical person?
I understand someone who has those beliefs supporting Palin (and feeling more supportive of McCain because of his choice of running mate)– it’s the same as my support of Obama, which is not based on his “looking like me.” I share his view of America. You’re saying you share Palin’s. I understand your joy. But, I don’t think the group you describe defines the shift in the polls that Laura is describing. I think Laura is describing another group of women, for whom the identification with Palin is less ideological.
(I will admit to being flumoxed by why “global warming skepticism” fits into the rest of the list — the others are ideological, but global warming is science. One’s evaluation of that data really should be independent of ideology)
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Laura, conservative women may not have been interested in Obama, but they certainly weren’t wild about McCain before 10 days ago. There was quite a bit of talk about staying at home and some lingering interest in Ron Paul, and my otherwise conservative younger sister and her friends thought they should vote for Hillary to be part of putting a woman in the White House. Plenty of conservative women didn’t support McCain in the Republican primary, even after he looked like a shoo-in.
bj, not theoretical — my next-door neighbor :-). Climate change research is open to interpretation, and both global warming skeptics and believers tend to be ideologically driven.
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Mrs. Ewer, if I can be blunt, the only people who think global warming is still “open to interpretation” are the ones who are ideologically driven. The science is quite clear.
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“Laura, conservative women may not have been interested in Obama, but they certainly weren’t wild about McCain before 10 days ago.”
That’s very true about conservatives generally. McCain didn’t evoke a lot of passion–up until a week or so, his relationship with conservatives was more like an arranged marriage than a love-match. A lot of conservatives were holding their breath to see who McCain would choose for VP. I made my first contribution to the McCain campaign only this week (I just hadn’t had the urge before), and an aunt told me Palin was what made her finally pull out her checkbook. Lots of other people seem to have done the same. NRO is just now warming up to McCain/Palin. Among conservatives a few months ago, there was a lot of talk about sitting this election out.
The sense of identification is a very big deal. I don’t necessarily see myself in Sarah Palin, but I do see my sister (who runs two small businesses), my aunt (who raised a family of four and then started writing local history with her brother in her late 50s), and my great-grandmother (who also raised a family of four and was a legend in her own time). Sarah Palin’s not me, but she’s a very recognizable figure. She is familiar to me in a way that Hillary Clinton has never been. I don’t understand HRC after all these years, but I get SP.
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Jen said:
“Mrs. Ewer, if I can be blunt, the only people who think global warming is still “open to interpretation” are the ones who are ideologically driven. The science is quite clear.”
bj,
You’re the science expert around here. Is that so? I keep hearing about sunspots and cooling.
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“bj,
You’re the science expert around here. Is that so? I keep hearing about sunspots and cooling.”
Yes, Jen is right.
Does that mean the debate is over? 🙂
Honestly, I do know there is absolutely scientific consensus on human-caused global warming over the last century; continuing areas of debate are over what the consequences of that warming will be; and the politics of what we should do about the consequences are certainly politics.
Science, though, is all about testing whether we might be wrong (i.e. falsify the hypothesis) and I can guarantee that there are plenty of climate scientists who have absolutely no ideology about global warming other than getting their manuscripts into Science magazine.
(BTW, I am not a climate scientist)
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I personally think the biggest impact Palin has is now conservative women will actually go and vote whereas before they were on the fence. So now we’re going to get months of challenges to voting rights as I see specious arguments about why some people don’t get to vote. All Obama has to do is get his base energized and galvanized and actually voting. it will be fine.
On the culture wars level:
It is really annoying to hear about intelligent (I assume) women voting for one person because they don’t relate to the WIFE of the other major candidate. Its driving me crazy to see those “michelle vs. sarah” comparisons. At least compare Michelle to Cindy McCain. Cindy doesn’t come out so well.
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Mrs. Ewer, if I can be blunt, the only people who think global warming is still “open to interpretation” are the ones who are ideologically driven. The science is quite clear.
Really? Can you rephrase concerns about how the AMO is statistically really more like a random walk than an exogenous cycle, and explain why those concerns are invalid? Or on how Landsea 2008 doesn’t cast serious doubt on a frequency trend?
Yes, I’m ideologoically driven — my ideology is that I’m really tired of science and statistics being abused to score cheap points on a blog.
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“Really? Can you rephrase concerns about how the AMO is statistically really more like a random walk than an exogenous cycle, and explain why those concerns are invalid? Or on how Landsea 2008 doesn’t cast serious doubt on a frequency trend?”
yes, can you?
Christopher Landsea doesn’t dispute human caused global warming — his area of research whether there’s been a resulting increase of hurricane activity–he thinks there’s no evidence in favor of that hypothesis (Landsea et al 2008).
As with the evolution debate, I, personally, get really tired of legitimate scientific debate being used to impugn the fundamental areas of agreement on science.
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“most importantly, are incredibly pro-life. Most have themselves decided to continue a surprise inconvenient or late-in-life pregnancy, to keep a baby with disabilities, or to adopt or foster parent, and stopping or restricting abortion is extremely important.”
This kind of comment enrages me. I had an inconvenient/unplanned pregnancy (meet my son, Eric), I refused to have AFP or amnio testing on the grounds that I didn’t intend to have an abortion because of fetal abnormalities, my husband and I had discussed adoption and ….
maintaining the right for women to have an abortion is extremely important to me.
Stop grouping all these characteristics together under the banner of “pro-life.”
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Is there any actual evidence that conservatives are more likely than liberals (or Republicans more likely than Democrats, which is probably the proper comparison) to refuse amnio, to carry a Downs or otherwise impaired baby to term, or even to refrain from having an abortion? I’d be surprised if there were such evidence, and would even be surprised if its true. I’d like to know though.
Of course the media is liberal: it wouldn’t be treating a man as it is treating Palin. It’s the soft bigotry of low expectations we’re witnessing. Oh, wait a minute, no, the media is just sexist. And Palin is benefiting, big time.
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I suspect, reading Amy P’s comment, that Palin might, at least on brief encounter, have that rare quality of you being able to see in her what you want. I saw her speak, and instantly recognised the most obnoxious person I went to high school with, 25 years on. (The person I recognised is here, by the way:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo_Moore)
This may, or may not, be an advantage after another 8 weeks of this soap opera.
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Wendy, I’m there with you. I have two adopted children, two children through birth- one was born after I was 35. I had no prenatal testing, because I knew that abortion was not an option we would consider.
However, I am assuredly pro-choice because I don’t think my religous or philosophical views should stop others from what is deciding is right for them.
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You know what bugs me about Palin? She found the money to build a hockey rink but made rape victims pay for their own rape kits. (See Edge of the American West). Where were her priorities?
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As the sole male commenter here I am almost intimidated but I think there are two things missing from all of the above analysis about Sarah Palin and one leads into the other. The first is that Palin has energized the whole of the conservative base. Agree or disagree with the positions but a hierarchy of ideals exists amongst conservatives. First and foremost is a right of a fetus to grow through birth without abortion. I’m not making any other assertion than that alone. Secondly, conservatives will not like tax increases of any kind against any demographic (see Bush I, they will not vote for tax increasers). Third, conservatives must believe someone is a staunch believer that military strength leads to diplomatic strength.
Palin meets all three criteria with flying colors. The strategical part of the pick can be debated but the visceral reaction of the media was to hammer Palin for everything, which ended up proving the ‘ol “equal and opposite reaction” theory true. What this did was get every conservative excited. Most of us weren’t excited about McCain. If it rained on Election Day I probably would have stayed home. But now people like me are excited. To multiply things, so is my wife. Since Palin was selected my wife spends hours every day reading up on the campaign. The energy on conservative blogs is ridiculous. My humble little blog has tripled in hits since Palin took the stage.
This leads into the second issue, the polls. If you are like me you pay attention to polls like Real Clear Politics average or polls that include “likely voters”. If you don’t pay attention to those you are still wondering why Gore and Kerry didn’t win by five points. Anyway, Likely Voters are determined by a series of questions beginning with, “are you registered?” and ending with, “if the lines are long and it is hailing will you still vote?” This is where the surge in the polls has occurred. Obama came out the gate with huge excitement from his supporters and little from McCain’s. Now the roles have reversed and the polls indicate that. If you watch Obama’s rallies now you will see much less excitement than rallies earlier in the year. The opposite is true for McCain. This is all due to Palin. Believe it or not some of us uptight, puritan, misogynistic, conservative males value beliefs over sex!
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Wendy and Lisa V.
I too belong to the old[er] mothers club who refused all testing, including AFP. Clearly by this limited internet sample, we’re an unexplored demographic already bigger than half-kenyan half-kansan harvard-educated lawyers.
Funny thing is I never considered myself heroic, and I’m intrigued at those who find Ms. Palin’s choices so. Shouldn’t it be unremarkable that a person acts in accord with her professed beliefs?
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I was 36 when pregnant with Ian. I also refused all testing. Include me in that demographic.
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Three pregnancies between 35 and 40 (not me, obviously), and we had tests but most probably would not have changed anything had they come back with bad results. The kids are great, and relatively normal considering at least one of the parents.
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