There’s a great Obama v. McCain discussion going on in my comments section. Let’s make a new post and continue the discussion.
Most of the opinion articles this weekend were devoted to telling Clinton to drop out of the race. Dowd writes "Surrender Already, Dorothy." Even if Clinton hasn’t officially dropped out, yet, I think it’s time to start thinking about the next step — The Obama-McCain race.
Ya gotta give McCain props for doing so well in the polls. He’s a hair above Obama in the polling. A few months ago, I would have said that any Republican had zero chance in November, but I guess I was wrong. Despite getting us into a hugely unpopular war, people are still willing to vote for a Republican. There are people who buy their children cereal straws, too, so my opinion of human nature is rather low right now.
However, I am not yet ready to put too much weight on this early polling data. Candidates always get a bump in their numbers after the nomination. McCain’s numbers are artificially high. If things are still neck and neck after Hillary drops out, then I’ll worry.
Apt. 11d 
But don’t you see: the Surge is working. Victory in Iraq is just around the corner…or, is it the light at the end of the tunnel…or….
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The internet wasn’t quite the same amazing thing it is now in 2000, but I am intrigued by the huge differences in the campaigns that McCain ran then and now.
Here’s an impressionistic list of what I remember of McCain back in 2000: campaign finance (ugh), Straight Talk Express, the media loves him (ugh), he doesn’t seem to love Republicans (ugh), Democrats voting in Republican primaries (ugh), “gook” jokes (ugh). As I recall, McCain ran much more lightly on his personal biography and military service in 2000, and I don’t recall hearing almost anything about his family. Compare that to this year, when Meghan McCain is out there blogging up a storm. (I haven’t looked at her blog, but she is adorable, and she has a lot of fervent male admirers on the internet.)
By the way, the past few years, I’ve heard that rumors of a biracial love child wrecked his chances in 2000. I remain very dubious of this story. Maybe I was in the wrong place to hear the rumors (PA), but I pretty plugged in to the internet then, and I never heard it even a whiff of that sort of rumor until years afterwards, and always as rumors. I suspect that the story about the rumor losing McCain the nomination is a big old urban myth. McCain just didn’t have good chemistry with Republicans in 2000. Interestingly, I also never heard about McCain’s wife’s 1990s prescription drug issues until this campaign. Nowadays, I see that piece of information just about every week from McCain enemies in comment threads.
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There was also a lot of speculation early in the first Bush term that McCain would switch parties. It’s amazing that McCain has been able to bag the nomination, shaking off (at least in part) his image among Republicans of being a disloyal, reporter-loving diva. Immigration and the VP choice are still an issue.
I think HRC and McCain are both similar in that they are known quantities, and I think people have a pretty good idea what kind of a president they will be (even if the prospect doesn’t fill us with rapture). I don’t think we know that for Obama. There’s a pretty good chance that he will spend the early (i.e. his only chance to do things) part of his term flailing about and floundering out of his depth.
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McCain’s up by +0.2%/Obama +1.4%/Clinton in the RCP average, using all post-Wright poll data. agree with you that these poll numbers are essentially meaningless (especially since the real key is winning the states, and not the national election).
But, I think there’s going to be a hard battle to fight in November for the presidency no matter what. I think Bush would loose, but he’s not running (and of course, no one should listen to me anyway, since I also thought Bush would loose in 2004).
I think McCain & the democrat will offer clear policy differences (unlike Obama & Clinton) and that people will get a real opportunity to choose the direction they want the country to go. And, yeah, I do believe the Republicans are going to draft us. Is it really possible to maintain the military posture advocated by McCain (for example, a real possibility of attacking Iran, continuing the wars in both Iraq & Afghanistan, maintaining a credible deterrent to China . . . ) without a draft?
That’s not a rhetorical question. What is the current thinking on our armed forces. I’m hearing the stories about “stop loss orders” and extended tours of duty, and thinking that we’re stretched to capacity as we are (without facing any additional challenges).
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There isn’t going to be a draft. Hence, there will be no ground invasion of Iran in the near future.
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I picked up Obama’s second book today. Just for Amy, here’s something from the prologue that irritated the heck out of me:
“I also think my party can be smug, detached, and dogmatic at times. I believe in the free market, competition, and entrepreneurship, and think no small number of government programs don’t work as advertised. I wish the country had fewer lawyers and more engineers. I think America has more often been a force for good than for ill in the world; I carry few illusions about our enemies, and revere the courage and competence of our military. I reject a politics that is based solely on racial identity, gender identity, sexual orientation, or victimhood generally. I think much of what ails the inner city involves a breakdown in culture that will not be cured by money alone, and that our values and spiritual life matter at least as much as our GDP. Undoubtedly some of these views will get me in trouble.”
Why am I annoyed? Because he implies that those views are not held by a vast majority of people who consider themselves Democrats, which is simply untrue. Maybe that’s what he believes he has to say to court independents and do the whole unity thing, but still. Grr.
It should be an 11th commandment for Democrats seeking office: Thou shalt not carry water for the opposing party.
I think Obama would be a very good president, but clearly he doesn’t walk on water. (Also, y’all have heard the story about the time Bill went fishing with the press, right? They’re out in the middle of the lake when one of the reporters says he forgot his best rod back on shore. Bill says don’t worry, and he walks across the lake back to the shore, gets the rod, walks back to the boat and hands the reporter his fishing gear. What’s the headline the next day? “Clinton Can’t Swim”)
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McCain has a chance against Obama, or Clinton. And that really sucks.
I think it is the usual phenomena where “Unnamed Democrats” are slightly favored over Unnamed Republicans”, but when actual people are nominated, the Democratic candidates always turn people off somehow.
Do we believe that the Republicans run more effective negative campaigns? I’m not sure. But the narratives that Republicans have picked for tarring the Democrats have stuck in the minds of people, for sure.
Democrats are weak, pandering, tax-raising, effeminate (unless they’re lesbians). Republicans are strong, maybe stupid, but take care of business.
McCain might beat Obama.
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McCain’s supporters are, um, quite enthusiastic.
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