With polls showing the candidates neck and neck, I’m fairly obsessed with the poll data right now. After taking account for the margin of error and likely voters, Bush might have a slight lead but not a huge one. For an incumbent president to win, he has to go into the election with a five percent lead. Carter and Reagan were also neck and neck at this point.

Dan writes that he is 80% likely to vote for Kerry. I’m about 95% likely to vote for Kerry, but am only 20% happy about it. I would never say that I’m 100% likely to vote for someone, because it is entirely possible that Kerry could do something ridiculous.

I’m not a partisan-ho. I refuse to take any asshole that my party serves me. I like weighing the two candidates until the last minute, keeping score during the debates, and monitoring spin. Each has to show me what they are going to do for me and how they reflect my values. Straight ticket voting strikes me as slightly antii-intellectual.

What makes me unhappy about Kerry? One thing that did irk me during the debate was his insistence on multilateral responses to global problems. I refuse to believe that France and Germany are more reasonable and have less selfish motives than the United States. Sometimes, if the cause is good, we just have to go it alone. More on Kerry’s foreign policy from Dan.

Of course, I never thought Iraq was a good cause and feel that it has been handled terribly, so I’m not voting for Bush. But I do think that we can’t cut our losses and pack up the troops now. We must finish off work there before we leave. Which brings me back to some worries about Kerry. I’m not sure he’ll have an interest in rectifying mistakes and committing more troops to Iraq.