All the political science literature shows that the state of the economy is the most important predictor of election outcomes. An incumbent will lose in a bad economy. But Obama seems to be doing OK. In fact, there is even some speculation that November could be a landslide win for him. 

If Obama wins in a landslide in November, will we throw 100's of .pdf files of APSA articles in the trash? Or will we have to add some qualifications to the literature? Possible qualifications: The state of the economy does matter, but the economy isn't really that bad right now. The state of the economy matters, except when the challenger is incredibly unpopular and his VP nominee is hiding under his bed.

The political science literature also poo-poos the importance of presidential debates in turning an election. The media doesn't seem to have gotten that memo. Tomorrow's debate is widely seen as critical to breathing life into Romney's campaign. Will it matter? 

UPDATE: Jennifer at APSA sent me a link to a Wash Post article that summarizes predictions from political scientists. Using existent models, most find that Obama will win, though not all. And those who say he'll win predict that it will be a squeeker. Compare those findings with posts that Nate Silver is writing. Right now, Silver predicts that there is an 85% chance that Obama will win. Who's right?