
History unfolds not through neat, well-planned, highly funded events and campaigns orchestrated by the smartest people in the nation. It comes to us on butterfly wings, through overlooked people and groups — a Serbian nationalist group, a failed art student, and a bullied, skinny kid in rural Pennsylvania—who knock over the dominos of change.
After spending a lovely Saturday afternoon visiting friends in Eastern Pennsylvania, I checked my phone on the ride back to New Jersey. The attempted assassination attempt was all over X. “It’s over,” I said to Steve. “The election is over.”
An assassination attempt on an American presidential candidate is horrific. To his credit, Trump reacted maturely without heated rhetoric or calls for action. We certainly need to examine security protocols to ensure that our leaders are safe. But we should also mourn, because this one random act robbed us of healthy political debate and a competitive election. The next Trump presidency is inevitable.

No, it’s not inevitable. You must be spending too much time doom-scrolling coverage. I doubt there’s a ton of Democrats and independents who are suddenly going to develop sympathy for Trump and vote for him. It will, of course, unite the Republican base, but even that is truly an unstable coalition with fissures that won’t go away. Trump has to hold that together while he moves to the center, if he can, to attract independent voters. But his base won’t like that. They’ll stay in line, but it will not be easy for him.
That said, I am beyond appalled at this assassination attempt. I recall the Kennedy and Reagan ones, both carried out by loner shooters with a grievance of some kind and easy access to weapons (of course, that also describes pretty much every other presidential assassin and, frankly, most mass shooters as well). I hope that everyone heeds their party leadership’s calls for dialing down the rhetoric.
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I hope you’re right!
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But I have to point out, at least here in the comment section, Wall Street economists are preparing for a Trump election. Conversations are happening.
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I read Axios, and they quoted a ‘senior Democrat’ as saying that Congressional Dems are resigned to an inevitable Trump reelection. This angered AOC enough that she took to Twitter to demand that this anonymous senior Dem retire.
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Tyler Cowen offers some suggestions about ‘why’ – https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/07/the-changes-in-vibes-why-did-they-happen.html Seems to me he is spot on with quite a lot of this
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Thanks. Super interesting.
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more! https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/18/jd-vance-world-view-sources-00168984?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
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Thanks again!
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You all should watch AOC. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlzNvNFqtBE .
I am finding that most people are happy to vote for Biden but they are afraid other people are not going to vote for Biden.
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Yes! I saw that earlier. Great points by AOC. I plan to talk about on Monday.
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Biden’s out
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