What’s the difference going to be between the popular vote and the electoral college vote tomorrow? How many conservative pundits will call for the abolition of the electoral college tomorrow? (Big enough difference. All of them.)
Will there be a Bradley effect? (I think it won’t exist. Those who have issues with Obama’s race have given pollsters other reasons (religion, experience) for not voting for him.)
Will there be an uncharacteristically high turnout by traditional low voters? Will the youth vote and black vote actually happen? Will this mean a permanent and lasting change in their voting behavior? (Yes. Yes. Small chance.)
What’s next for Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber? (Dancing with the Stars.)
Will dirty tricks suppress voter turnout in some areas? (Probably not.)
What is the impact of new media on the 2008 election? (Huge. The next post will explain.)
Will the Obama momentum push out Republican incumbents in Congress? (Yes, but not enough.)
Could we predict the outcome of this election not by checking fancy polling numbers on 538, but by examining mock elections in elementary schools? Jonah’s school was split; Ian’s school went for Obama. (Yes.)
What am I going to serve guests at my election party? Will I live blog the results? (Martinis and chicken wings. Maybe.)
Apt. 11d 
Obama: 338 electoral votes.
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I’m surprised that there’s been more talk about the “Bradley Effect” (for which there is little evidence) than about the “Cell Phone Only Effect” (which seems to be a real thing.)
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Obama around 350ish electoral votes/53% of popular vote.
We are serving Sam Adams beer, California Wines, Delaware crab dip, Arizona seven layer dip, Alaskan crab legs, and something from Chicago that our Chicago-an/former Hyde Park friends are bringing. My son’s middle school went for Obama by 2-1 margin, but then again, we’re in RI.
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The current system does not reliably reflect the nationwide popular vote. The statewide winner-take-all rules makes it possible for a candidate to win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. This has occurred in one of every 14 presidential elections.
In the past six decades, there have been six presidential elections in which a shift of a relatively small number of votes in one or two states would have elected (and, of course, in 2000, did elect) a presidential candidate who lost the popular vote nationwide.
Nationwide popular election of the President is the only system that makes all states competitive, guarantees that the candidate with the most popular votes nationwide wins the Presidency, and makes every vote equal.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.
The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
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” How many conservative pundits will call for the abolition of the electoral college tomorrow? (Big enough difference. All of them.)”
?????
Laura, all the scenarios I have seen which suggest McCain could win involve narrow victories in some states while Obama gets lots of useless margin in Calif and New York. So the electoral college, at the moment, advantages the Reeps. Conservative pundits are going to call for its abolition for what reason, exactly?
My view is that one has only to look at the last election in Mexico to be grateful for the Electoral College – very thin margin, and the defeated candidate camped out in a park in Mexico City for months-and-months and claimed it had been stolen. Every vote in the whole country susceptible to challenge. In our 2000 election, only a few states were in doubt, and there was no particular incentive for, say, the Nassau Republican Party or the Dems in St Louis to corruptly run up their totals to balance ballots cast in other jurisdictions.
I like the Nebraska / Maine strategy of awarding votes by Congressional District – it lessens the tendency to write off a whole state, but in a close election you don’t have to re-look at every vote in the country.
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It’s just the electoral college always amplifies spreads. So, if 538 is right, there is a 6% difference between the two candidates in the popular vote, but Obama might take 2/3rds of the electoral college delegates.
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“What’s next for Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber? (Dancing with the Stars.)”
This is awesome.
I’m going to a university event tomorrow night. I’ll bring my daughter, I think, and leave after the 9 pm poll closings. I suspect Obama will have won by then. They (the organizers of the university event) tell me there will be pizza, chips, and cookies. Wish I could sneak in some beer or champagne.
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Question:
What to do if the election winds up being another 2000-style marathon if you are hosting an election-watching party? What is the etiquette for getting rid of guests before the wee hours on a school night?
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Other questions:
Will there be a big line for my free Starbucks coffee? Will I finally try the oatmeal since I’m there and the coffee is free? Will I once again be the first Republican vote in my precinct?
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AmyP – don’t get rid of them. vanish upstairs to bed, and let them finish out the evening by themselves. Last one out, lock the door.
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MH,
Don’t Republicans vote on Nov. 7?
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The 7th? That’s good to hear. I had wanted to read RAF’s post on why he’s voting against McCain before I voted, but I didn’t think I had enough time.
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