What would happen if the delegate count based on the popular vote goes for Obama, but the super delegates vote for Hillary and tip the nomination her way?
Dick Morris writes that if that happened, a civil war would erupt. My husband says it would mean the end of the Democratic party. My buddy, Suze, says that nothing would happen. A civil war didn’t happen when the Supreme Court tipped the election towards Bush, even though he lost the popular vote.
What do you think?
Apt. 11d 
A man who has said he’d leave the US if Hillary is elected is arguing that people will be angry if she’s given the nomination?
Knock me over with a feather.
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To answer the question, I think people who spend 8 hours/day reading echo-chamber blogs and other media often fail to realize how few people spend 8 hours/day reading echo-chamber blogs and other media. Whether the superdels decide to give the nom to Obama or Clinton, I’d wager that 30% of registered Democrats won’t even know that the superdelegates were involved.
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I’m with Suze. I think the repercussions would be greater in the Village and the Other Village (i.e., the Blogosphere, which is becoming its own Village).
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No civil war. No riots in Watts. Perhaps some protests at the convention. But, the Democrats would loose, the presidency, and in my own state, possibly the governor’s race. There’d be other states where close races would be lost.
That’s why the superdelegates aren’t going to tip the balance. (Absent, as someone else said, a “Spitzer” level incident with Obama. If that happens, the rules change.)
Obama needs 300 delegates to reach the magic number. Hillary needs 433. I think the scenario I outlined depends on the math. If she gets close enough, then the superdels aren’t “tipping the balance.” They’re just breaking a little bit differently. But, in order for her to get “close enough” she’d have to get something like 65% of the remaining pledged delegates. That’s not impossible, but pretty unlikely.
(I don’t care what Dick Morris thinks about anything (but, especially about Obama & Hillary), either (and, I can’t even remember who he is — please let me remain in ignorance). I don’t care what Karl Rove thinks, either, but unfortunately, I haven’t forgotten who he is.
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Oh, c’mon bj, you can’t possibly have forgotten Morris – and even if you somehow had, his sordid history was ALL OVER the papers when Eliot Spitzer went down in flames.
Both Rove and Morris have insightful things to say in looking at this primary struggle.
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I don’t think there would be major civil unrest – honestly, the Iraq War hasn’t conjured up too much. I do thinkt that you would alienate alot of party faithful (especially African-Americans), the dare I say upper middle class who don’t seem to need a president, and the educated liberals…
I came into this election as a Libertarian – and tough we ususally end up with the Conservatives due to financial matters, many of us were impressed with Mr. Obama’s libertarian overtones. We are always the bastard of both parties – but many of us have flocked to a man who can annunciate what we feel about our country. So maybe I did drink a little of the cool aide….but my kids fell in love with him too (except his positions on homework and tv).
My husband, a life long party member and contributor, is flabbergasted that she wants to change all the rules. I quess you poli sci types keep up on all those things.
Whether Barack or Clinton get the nomination – I really don’t care that much. Not being a committed Democrat if my preferred candidate doesn’t get the nomination – my vote goes back into the up for grabs pile again. But I have to say, after hearing alot of comments from Clinton supporters – some of them flagrant lies about Obama (like he was sworn in on a Koran and the emphasis on his middle name ) I would not care to be associated with that party anyway if that, according to Clinton, is the backbone of the party. I would prefer to stay with the elitist libertarians – thank you very much. If the Democrats lose the election – you can thank the Clintons,who have stated, that they would rather be playing by Republican rules.
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