Super Tuesday — Make Your Predictions Here

~ Laura

In our rather wacky world of American politics, the new president could be chosen tomorrow. Barring some unforeseen event, the Democrats have it wrapped up in November. Tomorrow’s primaries could decide things for good.

Obama and Hillary are neck in neck. In New Jersey, Hillary has gone from a clear win to a statistical dead heat. They are each polling at 41%. Hillary has the support of the party bigwigs, but Obama has the endorsement of Corey Booker, the mayor of Newark. 80% of my students are going to show up to vote tomorrow. My parent buddies from New York City and I have been trading e-mails about the race and they are all going for Obama.

So, who’s got it? Can Obama pull off a Giants-style victory tomorrow? We need to make predictions, people. A couple of days ago, I would have given it to Hillary. She did a good job last week in the Democratic debate. She reigned in Bill. She stopped the eye-rolling. She has the support of the party elites. However, Obama has my students, my parenting buddies, and Corey Booker. He also has this nifty YouTube video (thanks, Eszter). I’m going to say Obama.

Question of the Day: Who’s going to clean up tomorrow?

Published by Laura

10 thoughts on “Super Tuesday — Make Your Predictions Here”

  1. For what it’s worth, this two-time Nader voter, and intellectual-if-not-actual Huckabee supporter, is going to be registering as a Democrat tomorrow so I can vote for Obama in the Kansas Democratic caucus. His rhetoric and policy recommendations have never really set me on fire, but there’s definitely something there. And, more importantly, our poor old republic over the last two decades has already seen power handed off from father to son, and we can see how well that has worked out; a continuation of the Bush-Clinton-Bush dynasty exchange is just asking for more trouble. We need new blood in the White House. (More here and here.)

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  2. John McCain is going to clean up tomorrow, because the Rs use winner-take-all primaries. Hillary and Obama are going to be close (how’s that for a daring prediction?), making Democratic votes meaningful deeper into the primary season than they have been in many years.
    I’m going to give my online vote as a Democrat Abroad to Obama because he’s the real deal: transformation time, which after two terms of GWB our republic rather needs.

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  3. Not a clue who’s going to win. I’m sort of thinking Hillary will. I’ll be voting for her.
    I really understand the appeal of Obama, and I would not be sorry if he were president. My gut is telling me to vote for Hillary. I wish I could meet both of them face to face. I have pretty good judgment of people I meet f2f.

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  4. I’m hoping beyond hope that Obama can pull it off. But the cynical side of me thinks that it will be very difficult to beat the Clinton machine.

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  6. I do not think the Dems have it wrapped up in November, and that we Dems have frequently deluded ourselves in the past and seen commanding leads disappear over a summer. And, even now, McCain is running neck and neck against Hillary & Barack.
    I think the Dem primary is impossible to predict, because even if we predicted a winner in each state, it won’t mean that we’ll have predicted the delegate count. The newspapers are saying you have to get 66% of the vote in a congressional district in order to get more than 1/2 the delegates in CA. I think the rule structure makes predicting the winners something more random than predicting the final four.
    But, I’m for Obama. My gut feels no inclination to Hillary, though I did warn my husband that if he disses her too much I might find myself caucusing for her just to spite him.
    I think Hillary is the wrong choice for the party, because I don’t think her particular brand of experience is useful (and will loose in the head to head experience battle with McCain), that the specter of dynastic rule will make her job harder, and that Bill would be completely incapable of being an appropriate first spouse.
    I’ll be going to our caucuses to support Obama next week.

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  7. McCain will clean up and lock the nomination.
    I’ll predict that Clinton will get more delegates than Obama, but by less than 150, and the race will continue. And that for once in my life, I’ll get to cast a primary vote next week that means something.

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  8. I’m with Elizabeth: McCain will clean up. The other Reeps will be on the ash heap of history. Obama and Clinton will get reasonably similar numbers of delegates, but the whole thing will not get settled. Here in Va, I will finally get to vote in a primary which matters next Tues. I will vote for Obama. If he is nominated, I don’t know who I will vote for in the general. If Clinton is nominated, I will vote for McCain.

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  9. I’ll make a numerical prediction, since that’s more fun than throwing our hands up in the air. My math: assume a 60/40 split in favor of Clinton, then allocate all the at large delegates that way, and assume the rest split half way. 571 at large delegates *.60=342.6 for Hillary & 228.4 for Barack. Since no 3/5 delegates are awarded, we’ll round up. 343-228=+115 for Hillary.
    bj

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